77

[cocked&locked]

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Nice analysis

[Lost Wages]

How does this line compare to your alternatives? There are ~7SB in the pot on the flop. If your opponent would fold AQ or 88 half the time then you have a profitable flop bet:

EV = (11/64)*(7) + (53/64)*(-1) = +.38SB

Lost Wages

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
How does this line compare to your alternatives? There are ~7SB in the pot on the flop. If your opponent would fold AQ or 88 half the time then you have a profitable flop bet:

EV = (11/64)*(7) + (53/64)*(-1) = +.38SB

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless I've established a history with this player, it's hard for me to represent enough strength by just gaybetting here.

[theBruiser500]

if she checks behind on the turn with AQ and then bets the river can you call? will she bet AQ on the river? if so that seriuosly diminsihes your "3 outs"

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
if she checks behind on the turn with AQ and then bets the river can you call? will she bet AQ on the river? if so that seriuosly diminsihes your "3 outs"

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I think a big majority of tag players who would check behind with AQ on the turn would also check it on the river. If they wanted to bluff they'd bet the turn.

[sthief09]

in all honesty, this easily ranks as one of the 5 best posts I've read on 2+2, ahead of a lot of the famous Ed Miller posts. it is such a tough position to be in (IMO the second toughest behind blind defense) and you gave such a thorough analysis. this is an instant classic, and anyone who didn't get it needs to read it over and over and over untill they do

[tunnel]

Just a thought:

You assume the range of your opponents' possible hands is AK-AQ, AA-88. This appears to be reasonable. But you also assume that she is as likely to reraise with AQ as with say AA.
Wouldn't it be more realistic to calculate like this:
AA-TT, AK: reraise 100 % x 39 combos = 3900
AQ, 99-88 reraise 50 % x 9 combos = 450
AQ reraise 50% x 16 combos = 800
Probability she is holding AQ = 800/5150 = 15.5 %
(which is quite different from your 25%).

If she respects your raise I seriously doubt that she will certainly reraise UTG+1 holding just AQ (and I don't think she should).

Just a thought. Excellent post in any case, Nate.

[Entity]

Bump. Good read.

[marching_on_together]

I agree with your general points here but you should factor in how likely this person is to 3-bet pre-flop with AQ, there certainly not doing this everytime given your position especially if they have you pegged as a good player.

[QTip]

Sweet post. I need time to digest it a bit more.

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