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#11
11-16-2005, 11:10 AM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
[ QUOTE ]
the only problem with a turn c/r is that if he has a heart, then he's calling every time, and will be ahead (given his 3betting range). So, we will need a river bet to take it down anyways. [/ QUOTE ] It would put him in a tight spot if he whiffed though. 
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#12
11-16-2005, 11:23 AM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] the only problem with a turn c/r is that if he has a heart, then he's calling every time, and will be ahead (given his 3betting range). So, we will need a river bet to take it down anyways. [/ QUOTE ] It would put him in a tight spot if he whiffed though. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, if he whiffed he folds here almost every time...can you run some numbers on this, comparing the c/r with the bet? I'd say his likely range is KK-AA, AQs, AKo, AKs. I think a lower pp bets the flop, and a worse Ax hand wouldn't 3bet pf. Feel free to make any assumptions you see fit
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#13
11-16-2005, 11:26 AM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] the only problem with a turn c/r is that if he has a heart, then he's calling every time, and will be ahead (given his 3betting range). So, we will need a river bet to take it down anyways. [/ QUOTE ] It would put him in a tight spot if he whiffed though. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, if he whiffed he folds here almost every time...can you run some numbers on this, comparing the c/r with the bet? I'd say his likely range is KK-AA, AQs, AKo, AKs. I think a lower pp bets the flop, and a worse Ax hand wouldn't 3bet pf. Feel free to make any assumptions you see fit [/ QUOTE ] I would like to, except for the fact that I can't run numbers. I have no idea. Is there some one out there that can run numbers? David? Aaron? Anybody??
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#14
11-16-2005, 12:25 PM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
KK: 3 combos, AA: 9 combos, AK: 12 combos, AQs: 3 combos
If we c/r turn: we win 4.5BB 11/27 times immediately (when he has AK, AQs with no heart) we win 6BB 9/27*1/5 times when he has AA or KK with no heart and we river a flush we lose 3BB 4/27 times when he has AK with Ah, or AQh we lose 2BB 9/27*4/5 times when he has AA or KK with no heart and we do not river a flush we lose 3.5BB 3/27 times when he has AA with a heart = 1.8 + .4 - .4 - .5 - .4 = +.9BB on a turn c/r. Above I assumed: -we c/f river UI if he calls turn c/r -he 3-bets AA with a heart on turn -he folds to c/r with AK/AQs and no heart -he does not 3-bet KK or AA on turn without a heart...if he does, this loses some value Ok, there's the style, now somebody do a similar analysis for simply betting the turn.
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#15
11-16-2005, 12:45 PM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
"grunching"
he should autobet the flop.
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#16
11-16-2005, 12:49 PM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
[ QUOTE ]
"grunching" he should autobet the flop. [/ QUOTE ] yeah this is true most of the time. If I have KK or AA with a heart I will sometimes wait and try to get other guy to bet the turn so I can raise.
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#19
11-16-2005, 01:10 PM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
[ QUOTE ]
so who's doing that analysis for betting the turn? [/ QUOTE ] I really suck at math. I mean really. So I greatly appreciate your effort with the c/r on the turn. Less than 1BB. It seems really slim looking at it that way, doesn't it?
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#20
11-16-2005, 01:10 PM
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Re: Hand vs Lautzutao
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] "grunching" he should autobet the flop. [/ QUOTE ] I hope you don't mean me. [/ QUOTE ] he doesn't. but I did: [ QUOTE ] so who's doing that analysis for betting the turn? [/ QUOTE ]
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