A22 hand

[lautzutao]

You can't check that turn, for this very reason. Now you start thinking you're beat, and you think about folding. Don't. I think the raiser thought you were bluffing and thinks his loose Ace is good. Just call down. I don't think the first caller is gonna reraise unless he has queens full.

If you had put the bet in you would have probably only gotten raised by the AQ House, and wouldn't have to worry about possibly calling 3-4 bets on the turn. Sucks for you [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I'm gonna end up paying this off, it's gonna be 10+ bets by the river and there's no low on the board yet(7.5 bets to you at this point on the turn?) so you are still looking to scoop. If a low hits the river, eh...I'll have to think about that.

[Buzz]

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What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

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Modaddy - Bet the flop for sure. What to do next will depend on the turn and any possible reads you may have on your opponents, but you should probably lead with this all the way to the showdown.

You bet the flop both to charge the low draws and also charge anyone who might be drawing with the case ace.

Since you can see seven cards after the flop, there are 45 cards whose whereabouts are unknown to you. Your five opponents have 20 cards between them and the case ace may be one of those twenty cards. But there are another 25 cards your five opponents do not have, and the case ace may also be one of those twenty five cards. The odds are thus 25 to 20 (5 to 4) against any of your five opponents having the case ace.

You won't get the holder of the case ace to drop by betting, but you'll make him pay for the privelege of trying to draw out against you. And assuming the complete hand of the holder of the case ace is A345, any three four or five without a jack or deuce beats you.
279/820 = 0.340 is probability anyone who has a hand like A345 (or any hand that has none of your own cards and also doesn't have a pair) will draw out on you. That makes you about a two to one favorite against such an opponent.

Roughly, then, .34*20/45= 0.151, and you're about a 17 to 3 favorite.

Bet and (usually) collect when you're the big favorite for high. Period.

Buzz

[Mendacious]

Interstingly, as a Pot Limit hand, I am very pessimistic and not willing to put much money into it and watch it spiral out of my control. Mathmatically the analysis that the case Ace may be one of the cards NOT held I think fails to take into account the fact that if the Ace was one of the 36 other cards dealt to one of your opponents, chances are it is still in play. Which means that in reality you are probably a little better than 65% likely to win the hi. BUT, if there is a low, you are certain to lose it. And the chances of a low coming are about 64 percent.

AGAINST ANY HAND WITH AN ACE and two low cards you are a 60-40 DOG!!! Not only are you going to lose on percentage basis with this hand, as soon as the turn comes, you are going to have no idea whatsoever where you stand in the hand, and the betting has a good chance of being Stacked.

Therefore, in PL, I check this hand and the ONLY cards I even consider calling on the turn are high cards.

Plug in some other Ace hands in two dimes and see how bad off you really are.

---- but I am thinking about this in Pot Limit terms which makes it much worse of a hand. I suppose in limit you probably do bet it and hope your hi holds up, and a couple lows come along for the ride.

[Buzz]

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Mathmatically the analysis that the case Ace may be one of the cards NOT held I think fails to take into account the fact that if the Ace was one of the 36 other cards dealt to one of your opponents,....

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Mendacious - Good point.

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....chances are it is still in play.

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Well... sort of. I'll fold lots of hands with poorly connected aces, and I think I'm not alone. A78Kn, for example is a horrid starting hand in a limit game, and not even the worst example I could come up with. Hard to estimate the percentages, but I'll maybe fold a third of the hands with aces I'm dealt.

Thus a truer breakdown in a ten handed game would be somewhere in between 20/45 and 36/45 - maybe closer to 30/45 than either of the extremes in a ten handed game. I play mostly nine handed, so that I'm thinking 28/45 is a better estimate than 20/45 for my usual games.

At any rate, I'll call it 30/45 instead of 20/45 for a ten handed game. On reflection, I agree 30/45 is better than 20/45. (Maybe 31/45 is even better for some very loose ten handed games).

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Which means that in reality you are probably a little better than 65% likely to win the hi.

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No.

Hero is slightly better than 65% to encounter an opponent with an ace - but that opponent still has to have a card the same rank as one of his other cards appear on the turn or river - and without also a deuce or a jack on the river or turn. For that there are several cases, the most common of which is the case where the opponent with the ace has no other cards matching Hero's cards and also has no pair. And that figures to about 288/820.

(2/3)*(288/820) = 0.234.

That makes Hero slightly better than a three to one favorite to win for high.

Hero should bet to charge the lows to draw and also to charge any other possible opponent with an ace to draw.

36/45 is not correct for the probability of facing an opponent with an ace - but even using 36/45 makes Villain's chances to win <font color="white">_</font>for high only 28% or so.

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AGAINST ANY HAND WITH AN ACE and two low cards you are a 60-40 DOG!!!

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I don't think that's true. If you give Villain a hand with an ace plus two low cards, Hero is a dog, because Hero can rarely, if ever, make a winning low while Villain is a big favorite to make a winning low when it is possible, which is more often than not thus forcing Hero to split most of the time. But it's more like 55 to 45.

And, considering that this is a limit game and Hero has multiple opponents, that is not the situation anyhow. Hero is not one-on-one with an opponent who has the case ace plus two low cards.

It's possible Hero could end up that way, and it's possible Hero could lose this hand - but there are also various other possibilities that I think are much more likely.

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Therefore, in PL, I check this hand and the ONLY cards I even consider calling on the turn are high cards.

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You'd be making a huge mistake playing that way, even in a pot limit game.

You're still at least a 72 to 28 favorite to win for high, even in pot limit, when you hold A22J and the flop is AA2. Even if nobody ever folds a hand with an ace and you're playing in a ten handed game.

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Plug in some other Ace hands in two dimes and see how bad off you really are.

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Now you're giving your one opponent an ace plus a probable cinch for low. Without bothering to run it, I'll grant that Hero is a dog.

But let's make Hero's hand and the flop what they are (A22J and AA2), and let's give Villain a hand that simply contains an ace plus three random cards.

Isn't that more reasonable?

And if you do that, it's about 51 to 49 in favor of Hero. (I just did the sim, using Wilson's simulator which, unlike twodimes.net, allows such a distribution of known cards plus random cards).

Hey, I'm surprised it was so close. I thought Hero would be way out ahead. And Hero is way ahead for the high end. But the lack of a decent low after being double counterfeited hurts Hero more than one opponent with an ace plus random cards. Neither Hero nor Villain with one ace plus three random cards makes low 5774 times in 10000, but when somebody does make a winning low, 4226 times in 10000, it's almost always Villain with the winning low.

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...but I am thinking about this in Pot Limit terms which makes it much worse of a hand.

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O.K. I see that. Interesting.

It was very clear to me way before this thread that limit and pot limit are very different games. I try to stay out of pot limit posts for that reason.

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I suppose in limit you probably do bet it and hope your hi holds up, and a couple lows come along for the ride.

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No doubt about it in my own mind. You bet it and expect your high to hold up, and you also expect some lows to chase along, and maybe some poor high draws as well.

You seem to think Hero's high is not favored to hold up. But in truth, Hero's high is favored to hold up. I'll grant that Hero, having been already double counterfeited by the flop, has crap for low. But sometimes nobody will make a low and Hero will scoop. Most other times several opponents will make low and Hero will make high and get half the pot, after having contributed less than half the pot.

Sure, Hero can lose for high. <font color="white">_</font>But that's not very likely.

You made a good point about opponents tending to play starting hands with aces and got me to recognize 20/45 was not the correct probability of encountering an ace. I don't think 36/45 is right either, at least for a typical limit game. But 30/45 is probably closer to the truth.

Thanks for that correction. Very good correction.

Bottom line: In a limit game Hero should definitely bet that hand/flop! Hero is about a three to one favorite to come away with the high half of the pot (even in a pot limit game) - and with vigorous betting might end up scooping and at least figures to end up with more than he contributes to the pot.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Mendacious]

Thx. Buzz interesting reading.

Regarding my point that you are a 60/40 dog against any ace and 2 low cards, run it on 2 dimes and see. I think this is a huge range of likely hands that you are going to run into, and you are NEVER going to know when you are behind.

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and let's give Villain a hand that simply contains an ace plus three random cards.

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I'll fold lots of hands with poorly connected aces, and I think I'm not alone. A78Kn

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You can't have it both ways in your analysis that Villian is more likely to have A and random cards. If villian stays in, in my view it is VERY likely that he has A and low cards. They are the most commonly played cards. This hand will either win you a small amount/split pot, or get you steamrolled where you lose your stack.

And you will have no clue or control over it. Villian will have much better information about his hand, and can leverage the hell out of you.

And, again I am speaking to the hand in PL terms now.

[Buzz]

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Regarding my point that you are a 60/40 dog against any ace and 2 low cards, run it on 2 dimes and see. I think this is a huge range of likely hands that you are going to run into, and you are NEVER going to know when you are behind.

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Mendacious - Been a while since I’ve run anything on twodimes.net. I agree it is pretty nifty. So as to have the results fit, I’m going to omit “Hitie,” “Lolos” and “Lotie,” which, because of the way I input the opposing hands, are all zeros.

pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2h jd - ad 4s 6h 6c -- as ah 2d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As 2d Ah
cards-------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin---EV
2s Ac Jd 2h---210---650---170-----0-----0.524
4s 6c Ad 6h---170---170---650----520----0.476

pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2d jh - ad 3h 4h 5c -- as ah 2c
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As 2c Ah
cards-------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin---EV
2s Ac 2d Jh---190---531---289-----0-----0.440
5c Ad 4h 3h---289---289---531----630----0.560

O.K., I agree you can come up with one-on-one hands for Villain such that Hero is the under-dog.

If we enable a straight flush for Villain, it’s even a bit worse for Hero.
pokenum -o8 ac 2s 2d jh - ad 4h 5h 6c -- as ah 2h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing As Ah 2h
cards-------scoop--HIwin--HIlos--LOwin---EV
2s Ac 2d Jh---190---501---319-----0-----0.421
6c Ad 5h 4h---319---319---501----630----0.579

I still don’t quite get to 60/40, but O.K., we can come up with various one-on-one hands such that Hero is the under-dog. However, in each case, Hero is only the under-dog because of low considerations. Even when we enable a straight flush for Villain, starting from the flop, Hero still wins high more often.

Well... wait, if I give Villain A234, so that Villain will start out with the same full house as Hero, and will also usually make a low, then Hero is way, way behind - probably even more than 60/40. But that’s really worrying about the monster hiding underneath your bed.

I agree that once you see the turn card, assuming it’s not a deuce or a jack, you can’t tell for certain if you’re still ahead. It’s true that an opponent holding the missing ace could pair one of his other cards on the turn. And that could also happen on the river.

But that isn’t <font color="white">_</font>likely. The odds are against that happening.

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You can't have it both ways in your analysis that Villian is more likely to have A and random cards.

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But that’s not “both ways.” that’s just <font color="white">_</font>one way - the most likely way.

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If villian stays in, in my view it is VERY likely that he has A and low cards.

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It makes sense to me that anyone with an ace who would see the flop will stick around after a flop with a pair of aces. Are you going to fold AKQJs after a flop of AA2 because you don’t have a low card? (I don’t think so).

I don’t know what kind of starting hands you people play in pot-limit Omaha-8. Would anybody play 2345s? or 3456-double-suited? If so, would that person stick around after a flop of AA2? (I would generally see the flop with both of those and then would stick around after a flop of AA2 in a limit game).

Sure, Villain certainly could hold an ace and low cards - but there seem various other possibilities. There absolutely are other possibilities in a limit game - and in a limit game there will generally be several opponents sticking around and drawing for low after this flop. I don’t know about pot-limit, but this is a time for blasting away in a limit game.

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They are the most commonly played cards.

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Yes there’s a good chance that if someone who has seen the flop has an ace there are low cards to go with the ace.

But gee whiz! Three of Hero’s opponents have seen the flop and there is only one missing ace!

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This hand will either win you a small amount/split pot, or get you steamrolled where you lose your stack.

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Sounds like you’re used to playing in tighter, tougher games than I encounter.

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And you will have no clue or control over it. Villian will have much better information about his hand, and can leverage the hell out of you. And, again I am speaking to the hand in PL terms now.

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Let me get this straight. When you hold A22J in the small blind in a pot limit game and the flop is AA2, you’re not going to bet? One of your opponents somehow has better information about his hand?

I understand that you’re out of position in the small blind - and I realize position is important in pot limit - but is it so important that you have to pussy foot around and give your opponents free cards when you flop aces full? And you’re not pussy footing because you’re trying to trap an opponent... you’re doing it because you think somebody has a better hand.

Isn't that a bit paranoid?

Is that what playing pot limit Omaha-8 does to people?

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Buzz

[lautzutao]

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AGAINST ANY HAND WITH AN ACE and two low cards you are a 60-40 DOG!!! Not only are you going to lose on percentage basis with this hand, as soon as the turn comes, you are going to have no idea whatsoever where you stand in the hand, and the betting has a good chance of being Stacked.


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Wow, I didn't look at any numbers..I find it surprising that we're 60-40 to another Ace-low hand. Is that on the flop? Interesting. Luckily, we have many other players in the hand...I'll have to take a look at that, though Buzz seems to have taken care of that for us [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Some nice number crunching there man.

[lautzutao]

Wait a second, I don't have to look at any other numbers. We might be behind heads up, but no way we're behind with 4 players in it. Even if we bet, only the A hand calls and everyone else folds are we behind on the turn? No way we're behind.

Using your example on the turn we're now a large favorite with that Queen dropping. And in the OP's game he had callers along with him, so he's even further ahead of the field and has players drawing dead padding the pot for him. No way you fold this, and OP was incorrect in checking this turn. He should have bet it out and called a turn raise/cc river.

[Buzz]

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279/820 = 0.340 is probability anyone who has a hand like A345 (or any hand that has none of your own cards and also doesn't have a pair) will draw out on you. That makes you about a two to one favorite against such an opponent.

Roughly, then, .34*20/45= 0.151, and you're about a 17 to 3 favorite.

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My apologies. I left out 9 two-card combinations favorable to the A345 hand.

<font color="red">Make it 288/820 = 0.351</font> instead of
279/820 = 0.340.

<font color="red">Then make it .351*20/45 = 0.156

And you're about a 13 to 2 favorite over an opponent with an ace and three other ranks of cards you don't hold. (There are some other cases, but you're a big favorite over an opponent who hasn't flopped the same full house as you, no matter what).</font>

I still think you bet it straight-away and charge everybody to draw.

My apologies for math errors.

Buzz

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B&amp;M 4/8 game, in the small blind you pick up AJ22 rainbow.

4 limp to you, you just complete, BB checks.

Flop is AA2. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

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Open-fold. Are you kidding me? So vulnerable to runner runner quads, and at best getting half the pot. Fking retard.

Good luck.