$22: missed push?

[pooh74]

Its not the hand so much as what you gain here. You'll probably get away with it, but I am not sure if the risk is worth the reward. would you push 72 here? because its not much different.

like another poster said, BB=200 and that makes enough of a difference for me.

[45suited]

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would you push 72 here? because its not much different.

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67s is MUCH, MUCH different than 72o. I have legitimate suckout chances if I run into a hand.

I pass on pushing in some spots when others say that pushing is correct. But I'm more likely to push in spots like this, where I'm trying to seperate myself from the pack. If I fold here, I'm not desperate by any means, but after taking the blinds again, I would be ~5 BB. I have very good FE if I push here, regardless of my table image, due to the stack sizes.

27o vs. AKo: 32-68
67s vs. AKo: 42-58

My winning chances are 10 real percentage points higher with 67s than with 27o. Winning 42% of the time is actually 31% more than winning 32% of the time. A very significant difference.

[pooh74]

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would you push 72 here? because its not much different.

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67s is MUCH, MUCH different than 72o. I have legitimate suckout chances if I run into a hand.

I pass on pushing in some spots when others say that pushing is correct. But I'm more likely to push in spots like this, where I'm trying to seperate myself from the pack. If I fold here, I'm not desperate by any means, but after taking the blinds again, I would be ~5 BB. I have very good FE if I push here, regardless of my table image, due to the stack sizes.

27o vs. AKo: 32-68
67s vs. AKo: 42-58

My winning chances are 10 real percentage points higher with 67s than with 27o. Winning 42% of the time is actually 31% more than winning 32% of the time. A very significant difference.

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sorry, I didnt mean for my example to be taken quite so literally (my bad though...shouldnt have used it). My point is, of hands that are calling you here at this blind level, you MIGHT AS WELL be pushing any two against that range. Keep in mind the blinds are only 150 and calling ranges are going to consist of mostly over pairs...where you are way behind. You AK example is poor bc it is only one of two unpaired hands that calls you here...maybe three.

My assertion is all about the blind level here, not the cards so much. That said, i dont think there is really much debate that this is actually a pretty neutral situation. You are not going to get called as often as you would at higher blinds, but when you do, you will win-suckout less often. To reduce variance, I might sit this one out though.

[suited_ace]

They do need a very good hand to call you, but you can't assume they know that. There are plenty of monkeys at the $22s that will call you w/ way lesser hands than you would possibly imagine.

[45suited]

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They do need a very good hand to call you, but you can't assume they know that. There are plenty of monkeys at the $22s that will call you w/ way lesser hands than you would possibly imagine.

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Yes, you are correct.

I guess this relates to a concept that I have heard others refer to in passing, but has not been talked about much.

I base my pushes not only on ICM, but also on, for lack of a better word, larger game factors. You begin to recognize what 'type' of game will take place based upon the stack sizes of all the remaining players. This is not going to be a game where folding ITM will happen. A bunch of us are somewhat comfortable, yet somewhat short in chips. Soon, the blinds will be even higher and many of us are about to become shortstacks.

In spots like this, the aggressive player will usually prevail. I'm probably not explaining this concept well, but I think that a strength of mine is recognizing what style of play (when faced with close decisions) is called for based upon the chipstacks and blinds. This is a game that I will have to be aggressive and gamble a bit.

I hope this makes sense, but it probably just sounds like a bunch of mush. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I'm writing this, not to sound like some kind of expert, just to see if anyone else has thought about this concept.

[suited_ace]

I agree with everything you say. There are meta-game implications on top of ICM. If you're pushing too much, your opponents will widen their calling ranges.

You're already the most aggressive player, you pushed 2 out of the last 3 hands, you don't need to push another one. If you want to get fancy, you could limp and let their trapping paranoia give you another easy pot (bet any flop after it's checked to you). I'm not a big fan of fancy plays at the low levels though, so I think this is a pretty straightforward fold.

[45suited]

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I'm not a big fan of fancy plays at the low levels though

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I agree with you here completely.

I'm a bit surprised with the number of 'easy fold' responses. (I realize that yours was not one of them.) If not for table image, I push here 100% of the time with the same stack size / blinds. Taking table image into account, I suppose it's a close fold, but I hated doing it.

[suited_ace]

With a better image I might push as well, but I still think it's borderline. If the table hasn't been too push-crazy, I'm folding and waiting for a better spot.

[caretaker1]

I think you can argue either way here (analysis Harrington style here, or at least I'm trying):
For pushing: Versatile hand (holds up well against two overs), only two players behind you, both of whom you would hurt if you beat them, you're on the bubble so the players are tightening up, your M is low
For folding: You'll still have fold equity on later hands if you fold, you've already pushed a few times recently opening up the range of calling hands, your playing at $22 where there will likely be looser calling standards, when you are called you will virtually always be an underdog.
This could go either way (I would guess whichever way you decide you're not gaining/losing a whole lot).

My $.02

[ilya]

If you had pushed 1 or none out of the last 3 hands, I think you would have to push here. Given that you've pushed 2 out of the last 3 hands, I think it's close enough that pushing and folding are both reasonable options.