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#11
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I look at it as two different bets, the line bet is a -EV bet and the odds bet is like flipping a coin so it is an EV neutral bet. Therefore the game has the same EV no matter how much you take in odds.
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#12
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So then you would see no difference in the EV of a poker game where the house took 5% of the first $50 and one where they took 5% of the entire pot -- since in the former case the wagers over $50 are revenue neutral to the house. Interesting. I assume you also believe that a player should never lay odds, since you are now diluting a +EV wager instead of buying odds where you dilute a -EV.
To calculate EV use the total handle, then calculate the percentage. This is similar to "buy pay" slots, where the EV of the last coin is far greater than earlier wagers -- you don't get the "good" bet without making the "bad". The EV is the composite of all wagers. |
#13
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[ QUOTE ]
2) Taking odds in craps does not change the HA! [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Correct. Those who claim otherwise have not examined the issue properly. [/ QUOTE ] What are you using as a definition of HA? |
#14
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of course I would see a differnce in the poker situation because I dont make a bet in poker unless i feel like it has a +EV or atleast a good chance of turning into a +EV situation. this is different than making a bet knowing that there is a HA and I am getting the worst of it.
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#15
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[ QUOTE ]
this is different than making a bet knowing that there is a HA and I am getting the worst of it. [/ QUOTE ] You mean, like posting a blind? |
#16
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This is not the same!
posting a blind can still be +EV depending on the situation. and the game as a whole is still +EV. |
#17
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[ QUOTE ]
posting a blind can still be +EV depending on the situation. and the game as a whole is still +EV. [/ QUOTE ] My point exactly. When you calculate the EV, you look at the game as a whole. |
#18
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 2) Taking odds in craps does not change the HA! [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Correct. Those who claim otherwise have not examined the issue properly. [/ QUOTE ] What are you using as a definition of HA? [/ QUOTE ] The house edge on the pass bet is 1.4%. If you bet $1 on the pass line, the point is 6, and you take the odds for $5, the house edge on the pass line bet is still 1.4%. This is true even though the house edge on the $5 bet is zero. By making 2 bets, you have changed the house edge on your total action. This has no impact on your original bet. You now have a different bet with different EV. If you make a $1 pass line bet, and then bet $1 on "Yo" (11 on the next roll), you have not changed the house edge on the original bet. However, you have seriously increased the house edge on your combined action. (House edge on "Yo" = 11%.) The point of all of this is that you cannot change the house edge on a bet. You can change the house edge, up or down, on all of your current action by making additional bets. This does not change the house edge on your original bet. It changes your "bet", i.e., action, to a larger one with a different house edge. The further point is that since there are no +EV bets for the player, and since the zero EV bets require a -EV bet first, there is no way that the player can ever be playing with even zero EV on his total action, let alone +EV. |
#19
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This is a ridiculous argument in semantics. The original proposition was that buying odds does not change the HA. It seems you want to express the HA in $ instead of % -- in which case you're right -- but I've always seen it expressed as a percentage, as you did in you post. If you want to argue that the HA in $ of $1 on the Big 6 is the same as the HA of a $6 place 6, you're right -- but any calculations of expectation or variance will use the entire handle.
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#20
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I'm going to clarify the definitions. House advantage is always described as a PERCENTAGE, not an amount of action. Yes, the HA does change with odds, but not the amount of money. If you place $10 on pass, you will lose 14 cents in the long run. if you place $100 odds behind it, you will still lose 14 cents long run, but 14 cents into $110 total action is a smaller percentage than 14 cents into $10. So the HA does change, but not the amount of money that is represents.
Capiche? (and am I spelling that right?) |
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