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#3
09-07-2005, 11:15 PM
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Re: AA, 10-20 Borgata
[ QUOTE ]
Won't raising make it hard for me to protect my hand ever? [/ QUOTE ] What are we so worried about protecting against? We have a very strong hand, and given the position of the flop bettor, the course of betting on the turn is not likely to let us face opponent's with multiple bets cold anyway. Flop seems like a very straightforward raise for value. Everyone's going to put in that extra bet now, the turn card does not define our equity particularly more clearly, the hands we're most afraid of (flush draws and hands like KQ) aren't folding at any point and we have redraws against them anyway. 
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#4
09-07-2005, 05:18 PM
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Re: AA, 10-20 Borgata
The backdoor nut club draw adds significant equity to your hand, making your equity edge on the flop very significant in this size field. It's not a small edge to be passed on, ala the TT example in SSHE. Collecting the bets now is much better than calling and checking on the turn, many times to see the action check to a late position bettor or even (ugh) check around.
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#6
09-07-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: AA, 10-20 Borgata
Flop is bad. You need to raise here. A raise is not going to scare away a Kx hand or a flush draw for one more bet... and if you get a raise from SB it's not so bad to scare out the draws.
Turn is good. River is fine.
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#7
09-07-2005, 05:42 PM
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Re: AA, 10-20 Borgata
[ QUOTE ]
Flop is bad... Turn is good. [/ QUOTE ] okay, now I'm confused. How can you say the turn is good if you don't like the flop? The turn raise is an entirely different line from a flop raise. If we raise the flop, we're probably not gonna get to raise the turn; we'll most likely just have to bet when checked to. I'd most likely be raising the flop here too, but I'm still not so sure why waiting for the turn is bad.
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#8
09-07-2005, 06:02 PM
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Re: AA, 10-20 Borgata
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Flop is bad... Turn is good. [/ QUOTE ] okay, now I'm confused. How can you say the turn is good if you don't like the flop? The turn raise is an entirely different line from a flop raise. If we raise the flop, we're probably not gonna get to raise the turn; we'll most likely just have to bet when checked to. I'd most likely be raising the flop here too, but I'm still not so sure why waiting for the turn is bad. [/ QUOTE ] You are correct. There is a good chance that you will be checked to on the turn if you are not reraised on the flop. The turn is good based on the action that occured before that (same thing with the river). Let me flip it back -- why cold call the flop? What are you gaining? I am not saying you should play scared, but slowplaying AA here is just foolish. By the way, can we count the scare cards here? Any club, any 4, 5, 9 or T -- any J, Q or K is likely to improve someone's hand to trips or two pairs as well.
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#9
09-07-2005, 06:07 PM
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Re: AA, 10-20 Borgata
[ QUOTE ]
I am not saying you should play scared, but slowplaying AA here is just foolish. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I agree. I guess I just saw OP's line and started thinking it wasn't so terrible. But yeah, you're right.
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#10
09-07-2005, 09:37 PM
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Re: AA, 10-20 Borgata
Man, jumping ship so fast. How the heck am I going to protect my hand ever if not on the turn? Even inducing a 3bet on the flop won't do anything. Then on the turn I can't protect my hand, but I might as well get extra value/free showdown/whatever, free raise, seems superior to just calling.
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