I have to be ahead.....don't I?

[TiK]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know what kind of games you play in, but just because there's a pair on board, doesn't mean people won't cap the river w/ the Ac.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say you're up against Ac and JT. If they had a sf, well then, god bless 'em, but you're ahead most of the time here.

[andyfox]

"I have a LAG image"

-Must be those "bottom pair, bottom kicker" announcements.

Often enough, I find that when there's river action that says I can't possibly have the best hand, it's that my opponent(s) has/have fallen in love with his/heir hand; so if I have a big full house, dammit, I'm calling down. Hell, who knows, BB might have taken one off on the flop with pocket deuces. Maybe he decided to slowplay the other Q-J on the flop, or J-T, waiting to see what the turn brought.

Psychologically, it' hard to throw that hand away. That is, had the situation been similar, but your hand lower, it would have been easier, you know?

[mike l.]

i didnt actually read all the post but i skimmed it and i think i get the gist. is this going to be another of those hustler yeah i know all the players and they all know me and we all play good and they know i know they know i know they have it and i have it and our cards are basically face up so of course i should check-call down or even just MUCK threads? cause that's what it looks like youre doing again.

post a hand where no one has the nuts and no one knows it.

[Josh W]

This was online. I had no notes on any players. (that is enough, of course, to say that I should call).

I find it interesting that nobody has answered the "how often am I ahead?" question.

Josh

[mike l.]

"how often am I ahead?"

ok it was online. then the answer is "far often enough to cap the turn and the river without a second thought about it."

[golferbrent]

[ QUOTE ]
5 handed 30-60, and I have a LAG image.

I raise QJ UTG. Cutoff calls and BB calls. Threeway action. Flop comes QJT, with the Q and T of clubs. BB checks, I bet. CO and BB both call. Hmmmmm.

Turn is Jc, making the board (QJTc)Jx.

BB checks, and I check, somewhat confident that CO will bet here. But, dagnabit, he checks behind. Oh well.

River is the 2c, putting four clubs up there.

BB bets out. I raise. CO threebets!!

now, the BB caps it!!!!!

I'm getting about 7.5:1 to call the last two bets, with no fear of future raises. I call because I think I'm probably ahead more than 13% of the time.

But I was confused. See, when the BB bet out, and I raised, then the CO threebet, well, then the CO HAD to have the Ac, and even then it's an iffy raise.

WHen the BB capped it, I knew he didn't have a 'flush', though he may have had a straight flush. I just couldn't see him having a fullhouse. See, if he had two pair on the flop, I think he'd play it faster to maybe use me as leverage to force out a draw (like AT or A8 or some such). maybe he flopped a set, but I think he'd threebet TT or QQ preflop, and if not, I again think he'd protect it on the flop.

So, I really thought he may have had 89c or K9c, slowplaying on the flop. So, yeah. I called, but I really didn't like it. In retrospect, I'm not sure I'm even ahead 13% of the time there (with my second-nut-full-house).

Comments?

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with the funny way that you played it you have disguised your hand and no one is going to put you on a full-house. I think you are definitely ahead here more often then 13%.

I think your read of CO is correct... he could easily be putting in a raise here with the naked Ac. As a result then the player to be concerned about is the BB and whether he is better then you.

I think BB could have a worse FH then you. Fearing the St8Flush seems to be too apprehensive.

[hockey1]

If you know you have a LAG image, raising QJo UTG is just bad poker.

Not calling the river would be atrocious.

[andyfox]

5-handed.

[Paluka]

Slowplaying followed by a tough fold is almost always a disaster.

[Klepton]

[ QUOTE ]
Slowplaying followed by a tough fold is almost always a disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is an amazing quote.

OP, don't get FPS, just call down...and if they show a SF, muck your hand so they still thnk you're a dumb lag that called with trip jacks or AK or something.