taking your coinflips......1000 nl

[Prevaricator]

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There are easier ways to make a lot of money in NL than taking 55/45 edges.

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It's easier to make even more money in NL by taking 55/45 edges.

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[AZK]

What percentage of the time would you have to be right (he does in fact have overcards) to make this play? Greater than 90%?

I'm just saying that if a player is willing to move in for 50 bets preflop with AK, there are probably easier ways to take his money then taking 58/42 with him. No?

Edit:

You are risking 480 to win roughly 600. 58% of the time you win 1080 (626), 42% of the time you lose 480 (201). Interesting.

I recant my previous statement about not pushing if you are 100% positive, but I still fold in this circumstance.

How do you do this calculation for different % levels of you being confident he has overcards, for different expectations, just curious...

[Ray Zee]

listen to the masked man then give me my name back.

[Rotating Rabbit]

AZK you are right, elD is being pinickity and stating the theoretical obvious.

If you're 57% to win against overs, and 20% to win against overpair, then the chance of winning is:

( 57p + 20(1-p) ) / 100

= (37p + 20) / 100

where p is the chance he has overcards only. E.g. If you're 75% sure he has overs, the expression yields .475 ie -EV. (Ignoring blinds etc, which would make this about even).

In an internet cash game I really dont see how anyone can be 75%+ sure villian has overs when he pushes all in in this manner.

[Rotating Rabbit]

On another note, I have my number theory finals paper tomorrow...gone are the days of p and 1-p being probabilities....i wish. Now p is a prime ideal that most likely splits in the euclidean ring concerned causing a huge mess in all the calculations.

[AZK]

Interesting. Slipped my mind about how even if he has an overpair you still win 20% of the time. I agree for the internet it's damn near impossible. I mostly play live, so after playing for a few orbits with people I usually have a pretty good idea if they are the type to push with an overpair or with overcards. I would say the intervals go something like 60%, 75%, 90% for some people. So this is why it's normally an easy fold for me...

[Voltron87]

1. Who said this is a fold if he has two overcards? what what what?

2. It is still a fold under the cirumstances which I can see though.

[ZeeJustin]

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listen to the masked man then give me my name back.

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Seriously, these forums ain't big enough for the three of us.

[Ulysses]

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What percentage of the time would you have to be right (he does in fact have overcards) to make this play? Greater than 90%?

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This is a simple math problem. Don't ask me, figure it out for yourself. Don't forget to take into account the money already in the middle.

[Ulysses]

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AZK you are right, elD is being pinickity and stating the theoretical obvious.

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AZK is right? If this were so obvious, then please explain his statements. Thanks, chief.

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There are easier ways to make a lot of money in NL than taking 55/45 edges.

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This is not the attitude with which to crush cash NL games.

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Even if you are dead accurate and he does in fact have overcards, I still wouldn't call. Sure you are ahead, but who cares, why take 50/50 on half a buyin when you could take much better odds on more money.

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Figure out the EV for when he has two overcards. Now tell me exactly why AZK is right to fold when he knows his opponent has overcards.