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#11
02-28-2005, 11:46 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't like 3-betting that river, but so what. Where'd the 4th player go? [/ QUOTE ] 3betting the river is +EV. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's much closer than you're giving it credit for. Rob 
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#12
03-01-2005, 12:58 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
Villian in hand 1 had QQ and pulled down the pot.
Villians in hand 2 made straights on the river, and MHIG. Moral of the story, don't let beats like hand 1 (my first hand of last night's session) make you play flush draws weakly later on.
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#13
03-01-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't like 3-betting that river, but so what. Where'd the 4th player go? [/ QUOTE ] 3betting the river is +EV. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's much closer than you're giving it credit for. Rob [/ QUOTE ] With UTG+1'ss dead money in there as well, is it really that close? Button hasn't woken up until the river. Can we assume a full house here and not just trip sevens?
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#14
03-01-2005, 01:17 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
In the second one we aren't rasing the flop because we are trying to trap people?
Raising here doesn't seem that bad.
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#15
03-01-2005, 01:29 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
I think it's okay to call the river here even when you expect to win most of the time. In fact, that is my play. Most of the time you will win the hand, but the times you won't you will get 4 bet.
The key to selective agression is the "selective" part. I think we have a tendency to go a little overboard with advocating betting and raising. I have been as guilty of that as anyone. Sometimes I think we need to slowdown, and think: Okay, I am probably ahead here, but if I'm not it will get capped and cost me two more bets than it otherwise would. If I'm right it will get me one more bet, assuming he calls (a safe assumption). I have to be 66.67% sure here I am ahead. Am I really that sure?? I mean he sees the 3 clubs as well as I do (maybe [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). I like a call here.
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#16
03-01-2005, 01:32 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't like 3-betting that river, but so what. Where'd the 4th player go? [/ QUOTE ] 3betting the river is +EV. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's much closer than you're giving it credit for. Rob [/ QUOTE ] With UTG+1'ss dead money in there as well, is it really that close? Button hasn't woken up until the river. Can we assume a full house here and not just trip sevens? [/ QUOTE ] What hands would you expect to see here? Let's have a range. Your hand has to be good on the river here between 50 and 66% of the time (probably around 60% of the time) for a raise to be +EV. Rob
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#17
03-01-2005, 01:37 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't like 3-betting that river, but so what. Where'd the 4th player go? [/ QUOTE ] 3betting the river is +EV. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's much closer than you're giving it credit for. Rob [/ QUOTE ] With UTG+1'ss dead money in there as well, is it really that close? Button hasn't woken up until the river. Can we assume a full house here and not just trip sevens? [/ QUOTE ] What hands would you expect to see here? Let's have a range. Your hand has to be good on the river here between 50 and 66% of the time (probably around 60% of the time) for a raise to be +EV. Rob [/ QUOTE ] My guesses would be A7s and K7s, with A7s being more likely. Not really much of a range. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#18
03-01-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't like 3-betting that river, but so what. Where'd the 4th player go? [/ QUOTE ] 3betting the river is +EV. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's much closer than you're giving it credit for. Rob [/ QUOTE ] With UTG+1'ss dead money in there as well, is it really that close? Button hasn't woken up until the river. Can we assume a full house here and not just trip sevens? [/ QUOTE ] What hands would you expect to see here? Let's have a range. Your hand has to be good on the river here between 50 and 66% of the time (probably around 60% of the time) for a raise to be +EV. Rob [/ QUOTE ] My guesses would be A7s and K7s, with A7s being more likely. Not really much of a range. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I think that's a terribly limited range. You want him to have a 7, so he has a 7? Bad players will play QQ and TT this way as well; they'll see the flop action and just coldcall along, getting ready to raise the turn, and then they see the flush on the turn -- and they panick. Then they fill on the river, and raise. I doubt K7s is a raising hand for most people, but even if it is, we can only have A7s 2 ways and K7s 2 ways. We've got QQ and TT 6 ways, collectively. There's 3 ways to have AA but I don't think AA or KK plays this way, even by a bad player. Realisitcally, I think you're ahead 50% at best on this river. Rob
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#19
03-01-2005, 01:44 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't like 3-betting that river, but so what. Where'd the 4th player go? [/ QUOTE ] 3betting the river is +EV. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's much closer than you're giving it credit for. Rob [/ QUOTE ] With UTG+1'ss dead money in there as well, is it really that close? Button hasn't woken up until the river. Can we assume a full house here and not just trip sevens? [/ QUOTE ] What hands would you expect to see here? Let's have a range. Your hand has to be good on the river here between 50 and 66% of the time (probably around 60% of the time) for a raise to be +EV. Rob [/ QUOTE ] My guesses would be A7s and K7s, with A7s being more likely. Not really much of a range. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I think that's a terribly limited range. You want him to have a 7, so he has a 7? Bad players will play QQ and TT this way as well; they'll see the flop action and just coldcall along, getting ready to raise the turn, and then they see the flush on the turn -- and they panick. Then they fill on the river, and raise. I doubt K7s is a raising hand for most people, but even if it is, we can only have A7s 2 ways and K7s 2 ways. We've got QQ and TT 6 ways, collectively. There's 3 ways to have AA but I don't think AA or KK plays this way, even by a bad player. Realisitcally, I think you're ahead 50% at best on this river. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I think all these quotes just look cool. Just so I say something substantive, I think your outlook of 50% at best is a bit pessimistic, but we still agree that calling is correct.
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#20
03-01-2005, 02:04 PM
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Re: Building big pots with flush draws, 2 hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't like 3-betting that river, but so what. Where'd the 4th player go? [/ QUOTE ] 3betting the river is +EV. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's much closer than you're giving it credit for. Rob [/ QUOTE ] With UTG+1'ss dead money in there as well, is it really that close? Button hasn't woken up until the river. Can we assume a full house here and not just trip sevens? [/ QUOTE ] What hands would you expect to see here? Let's have a range. Your hand has to be good on the river here between 50 and 66% of the time (probably around 60% of the time) for a raise to be +EV. Rob [/ QUOTE ] My guesses would be A7s and K7s, with A7s being more likely. Not really much of a range. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I think that's a terribly limited range. You want him to have a 7, so he has a 7? Bad players will play QQ and TT this way as well; they'll see the flop action and just coldcall along, getting ready to raise the turn, and then they see the flush on the turn -- and they panick. Then they fill on the river, and raise. I doubt K7s is a raising hand for most people, but even if it is, we can only have A7s 2 ways and K7s 2 ways. We've got QQ and TT 6 ways, collectively. There's 3 ways to have AA but I don't think AA or KK plays this way, even by a bad player. Realisitcally, I think you're ahead 50% at best on this river. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I think all these quotes just look cool. Just so I say something substantive, I think your outlook of 50% at best is a bit pessimistic, but we still agree that calling is correct. [/ QUOTE ] How often do you think we're ahead here? If you think it's ~60%, you should be raising. I said ~50% because I think collectively, there's a small chance AA/KK plays this way (enough that I'll say AA/KK worth 2 possible hands), and that A7s is 2 more. Even if K7s is a possible raising hand, we've got 6 combos that we're ahead of and 6 that we're behind. Throwing in the possibility of K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but I honestly think we'll QQ and TT here more often than other hands. Overall I'd say you'll see QQ and TT here about 60% of the time, and hands you beat about 40% of the time. Rob
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