$1k WPT sat hand

[adanthar]

What do you mean by 'pretty bad'?

If you can steal your way into a 30K stack you shouldn't go anywhere near this pot, but if they're mostly calling stations I think you want this last flip.

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you need to call here? I'd personally call with 66-AA or AJ-AK. I think it's worth it for advertisement alone, because you're the big stack and you don't want small stacks pushing your blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling off a third of your stack for "advertisement alone" is probably the dumbest thing I've ever heard.


Like others said this seems very marginal either way. In the satellite I would just muck it - I don't think you're close enough to the end yet where you can guarantee yourself a seat by winning a coin flip here. Then again, it would really help for you to know about the other top stacks in the tournament right now.

[MLG]

I was on the fence about calling, but then I looked at the structure. 20 min levels makes this structure super fast. Usually that would be an argument for calling, but I think it works the opposite way in this case. Everybody at the table is under 10k except for 2 players, as the blinds escalate they are going to be pushing in more and more desperate situations with less and less hand. I think even if you pick up a good hand later, even if its worse than 99, and you call an all-in (even if its for a larger percentage of your stack than this all-in is) your probably going to be in better shape against the range of all-in pushes than you are in this situation. I make you at about 55% here using a pretty large range (I used Aces through 7 and pairs through 55, KQ/KJ).

Also, you need about 12k more or so to have an average stack at 8 people. Winning 6k helps but doesnt get you to treading water territory by any means, while losing 6k here greatly dibilitates your ability to steal. Play small pots against the short stacks, gamble when they are even more desperate.

[youngin20]

nice post MLG. i like your analysis.

[kuro]

You've seen the guy push 3 times already preflop. One of them was AT from ep, you're certainly ahead of the range he pushes from the button. You're way way out of the money. So you call knowing your 55/45 and that people will be less likely to push against you in the blinds regardless of the outcome.

You think this is a clear fold what range do you need to call with?

[Ulysses]

I was MP. I pushed w/ KQ. SB called w/ 99 and it held up.

I think it was close. I lean towards folding, but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
as the blinds escalate they are going to be pushing in more and more desperate situations with less and less hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a great point and this is why I edged towards thinking fold was better in this spot. In this round, I'm pushing in this spot w/ hands that are probably coinflip at best for 99. One more round, and I'm pushing here w/ hands that 99 fares much better against. So, very shortly, as you point out, this guy can take stands and be much more likely to have way the best of it.

[JaBlue]

Don't get me wrong, Kuro, in a regular tournament this is a very easy call. The problem, though, is that we're not playing for first. I don't want to coinflip 1/3 of my stack away to a point where I will <i> have to </i> make a big move to get a seat.

As for my range, its hard to say. I think its very borderline either way. I would very strongly consider calling with tens, definitely call with jacks or better. Also I'm calling AQ+.

[JaBlue]

I agree. It seems incredibly marginal either way.

[Blackjack]

haha great post.

I'll have to try the reverse post sometime.
His call sucked - but if he sucked, then the call was good for him.

Blackjack