Would you push here?

[willie24]

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You are getting called 90% of the time

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that's not even close to true. the post stated that the villain has been raising almost every hand. think about it.

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You are getting called 90% of the time, and are almost always going to be racing at best.

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yes, you are likely racing when you are called. sometimes you will be dominated, and sometimes you will be dominating.
all in all you easily have pot odds when he calls you.

your fold equity (which is very significant here), makes pushing ultra-easy.

[Daliman]

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You are getting called 90% of the time

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that's not even close to true. the post stated that the villain has been raising almost every hand. think about it.

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You are getting called 90% of the time, and are almost always going to be racing at best.

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yes, you are likely racing when you are called. sometimes you will be dominated, and sometimes you will be dominating.
all in all you easily have pot odds when he calls you.

your fold equity (which is very significant here), makes pushing ultra-easy.

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I don't know what levels you play where a UTG big stack raiser commonly will raise 4 handed with a hand that he will have to fold for 1325 more into a 2425 pot, but if it's the same levels that pushing with 99 here is correct, then I'd say you are correct. I just can't see it happening anywhere where players have a clue, backbone, or idea of how poker is played.

You also don't seem to understand that pot odds work AGAINST you here. You don't have pot odds when someone calls YOU.

FOld equity, even if it WERE highly positive here, is but a small part of the whole picture here. You need to look at it all harder.

[ChipWarrior]

Wow, didn't expect it to get this lively. Trying to take my game to next level and there is tons to chew on here.

Scuba, Just learning about ICM and will post my first analysis here.

[willie24]

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I don't know what levels you play where a UTG big stack raiser commonly will raise 4 handed with a hand that he will have to fold for 1325 more into a 2425 pot

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2s, 50s, 200s, 1000s.

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You also don't seem to understand that pot odds work AGAINST you here. You don't have pot odds when someone calls YOU.

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let me rephrase: had he pushed, you would have pot odds to call. (we are assuming of course that he has a range of hands he would miniraise with, not push with)

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FOld equity, even if it WERE highly positive here, is but a small part of the whole picture here. You need to look at it all harder.

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it's a huge part of the whole picture. if you need to see the math, let know.

i'm OK with how hard i have looked.

[Daliman]

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I don't know what levels you play where a UTG big stack raiser commonly will raise 4 handed with a hand that he will have to fold for 1325 more into a 2425 pot

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2s, 50s, 200s, 1000s.

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You also don't seem to understand that pot odds work AGAINST you here. You don't have pot odds when someone calls YOU.

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let me rephrase: had he pushed, you would have pot odds to call. (we are assuming of course that he has a range of hands he would miniraise with, not push with)

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FOld equity, even if it WERE highly positive here, is but a small part of the whole picture here. You need to look at it all harder.

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it's a huge part of the whole picture. if you need to see the math, let know.

i'm OK with how hard i have looked.

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I'm guessing you don't play 100's, 200's, or 1000's.


As far as the math, don't kid yerself. I know the math here. You are misusing it if it comes up with a clear call.

The only people who should push here are people who don't feel they are very good or are outmatched. Simple as that.

[willie24]

you are right that the villain likely has pot odds to call your bet, and might even know it, considering that he needs to win only 36% of the time to have pot odds to call.

however, he will give you credit for a big hand here, and there is a fair chance that he will fold hands that are prone to domination, such as any ace less than AQ, KQ, KJ, JT etc.

he also may fold because he thinks that 45/55 flip is bad for him also, as a loss will cripple him and A. prevent him from coasting into the money, or B. prevent him from stealing. both of these reasons are usually overvalued, but nonetheless, people do value them: and the type of player who miniraises a lot on the bubble WILL fold quite often when his miniraises are pushed. (otherwise he would be raising more preflop).

if you knew that he would only fold 15% of the time, that would certainly be enough to warrant a push.

[BigHobo]

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Unless the initial raiser was pushing tons, I would fold this with few reservations. You are getting called 90% of the time, and are almost always going to be racing at best. The BB may have to call here also if you fold, as he will have only 870 left after this hand.

Not that tough a fold at all.

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I fold this hand too, but I think the chance of getting called by the min-raiser is significantly less than 90% (at least at $109) for the following reasons:

1) Raiser has put in less than 15% of his chips and still would have chip lead on the bubble with a small stack at less than $1000.
2) If the raiser were to call and lose, he would not be short stack but would be pretty close.
3) If I was raiser I would have to assume that re-raiser has a pretty damn good hand and if I'm holding something like AT or a small to mid-level pair there's a good chance I am dominated.

I would estimate the chance of a call at no more than 70%. If I were the original raiser, I'd need a pretty damn good hand to call in that situation.

[rickofcampbell]

Against a player who has been raising almost every hand this is any easy move all in play. No regrets.

You are only slightly ahead of the small stack, plus you are looking to move up to first or second. 99 could well be the best hand you get in the next 20 minutes.

[Daliman]

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Against a player who has been raising almost every hand this is any easy move all in play. No regrets.

You are only slightly ahead of the small stack, plus you are looking to move up to first or second. 99 could well be the best hand you get in the next 20 minutes.

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SLIGHTLY Ahead of the short stack?. He will have the short stack more than doubled following this hand unless the SS wins the hand.

Seriously, people. Play poker, not cards.

[Apathy]

I think the fact that so many people think pushing is correct here is a huge problem with their sng play, no matter what limit they play. This is a pretty easy fold. The bubble is all about FE, you are not the shortest stack, so you should never push unless you think there is a high probabilty that the opponent will fold, or that there is a high probability you will be in a dominating position to win the hand. A coinflip vs. someone with more or equal chips to you when you are not the short stack is a DISASTOR. That is exactly what happend here and its what you should be expecting when you pushed. I havent run an ICM on this hand yet but my intuition says that its a bad push unless you had some decent FE which it doesnt look like you did.

Don't get me wrong, I believe you should be crazy aggresive on the bubble, but usually only when your first in. Not when your calling all in (which you basically are here).