#11
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Re: Which is correct regarding a flush draw?
Pardon my ignorance,
What is ncr? And please explain the math. Thank you. |
#12
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Re: Which is correct regarding a flush draw?
nCr(n,r) is the number of ways you can choose r things from a total of n things.
Thus, for example: nCr(2,2) = 1 nCr(3,1) = 3 nCr(4,2) = 6 The formula is given by: nCr = n!/( (n-r)! * r!) where n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*...*3*2*1 Search google for "n choose r" or combinatorics for more info. If you are not familiar with these concepts, I won't be able to explain the math to you. gm |
#13
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Re: Which is correct regarding a flush draw?
The 60% probability probably refers to the probability of the flop being two-suited, not the entire board.
Probability of flop being two suited = 1 - prob(rainbow) - prob(single suit) prob(rainbow) = (52/52)*(39/51)*(26/50) = 0.3976 prob(single suit) = (52/52)*(12/51)*(11/50) = 0.0518 prob(two-suited) = 1 - 0.3976 - 0.0518 = 0.5506 Which is fairly close to your 60% figure. Not sure if this is what was intended when you heard that remark. |
#14
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Re: Which is correct regarding a flush draw?
That may very well be what I read...thanx much!
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#15
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Re: Which is correct regarding a flush draw?
[ QUOTE ]
ncr(4,2)* (ncr(13,1)*ncr(13,4)*2 + ncr(13,2)*ncr(13,3)*2)/ncr(52,5) This works out to 14.5%. So yes, the 60% is way off. [/ QUOTE ] gm, I'm struggling with this...can you help? 1. ncr(4,2) would be the number of ways to combine 4 suits two ways...CORRECT? 2. ncr(13,1)*ncr(13,4) refers to the number of ways to get 1 card of one suit and 4 cards of another suit...CORRECT? 3. ncr(13,2)*ncr(13,3) refers to the number of ways to get 2 cards of one suit and 3 cards of another suit...CORRECT? 4. the ncr(52,5) term is obvious and the '+' sign is obvious 5. What is the *2 factor that's used with both terms in the parentheses? Thank you. |
#16
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Re: Which is correct regarding a flush draw?
ncr(4,2) would be the number of ways to combine 4 suits two ways...CORRECT?
Correct. ncr(13,1)*ncr(13,4) refers to the number of ways to get 1 card of one suit and 4 cards of another suit...CORRECT? Correct. ncr(13,2)*ncr(13,3) refers to the number of ways to get 2 cards of one suit and 3 cards of another suit...CORRECT? Correct. What is the *2 factor that's used with both terms in the parentheses? Take two particular suits, hearts and clubs. We can have: 1 heart, 4 clubs 2 heart, 3 clubs 3 heart, 2 clubs 4 heart, 1 clubs But the # of combos for "1 heart, 4 clubs" = # of combos for "4 clubs, 1 heart". Similarly for 2,3. So we just multiply each by 2. gm |
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