5/10 NL on UB - JT on the JJ5 flop

[turnipmonster]

here's my take on it. raising the flop and checking the turn means you're going to be looking at a pot bet from most reasonable players most of the time on the river. assuming you raise the pot on the flop (320 straight), that means the minimum bet you will most likely be looking at on the river is around 720. if he underbets the pot on the turn you are in a pickle, as your effective odds still aren't that great since he may very well drop the hammer on the river.

so to me, if I raise the pot on the flop then I should be prepared to be looking at calling around 720 more to see a showdown.

not raising the pot on the flop means I'll probably have to call a pot bet on the turn (280), but I more than likely won't have to call a pot bet on the river if he has a hand I can beat (i.e. I can fold to a push because I think most overpairs will check the river). in the first case of raising the flop I show a lot of weakness by checking the turn and as a result I think my opponent will bet worse hands than mine on the river. whereas after getting called on the flop and turn most overpairs will check the river, if I know my player well enough I can perhaps even value bet there (easier live than online).

I guess my main point is I feel that raising the flop almost guarantees you will have to put in a lot more money to see a showdown than calling the flop, which provides you with enough stack to play well on later streets (where many players do not play particularly well). I just think you win the hand more often by keeping your hand somewhat less defined as well as not building the pot. raising the flop is always a pot building move, and I don't much like it with what could be a 3 outer, but is generally something I want to showdown.

love to hear your thoughts on this, since I know you are a very strong player and I might change my mind.

--turnipmonster

[DOTTT]

I think we all agree that he wants to play a small pot here, so what's the best way to achieve this?

Raisng the flop, checking the turn, and calling a bet on the river.

[Pogue]

Ahhhh.. NL.. More my comfort zone.... Exactly right, pocketdueces!!! The minimum raise would smell like two things to me.. Either a trap bet designed to induce the opponent to play back (from a mid-level player), or exactly what it looks like (weak player), a weak bet trying to avoid calling. Either way, coming back with a bet of around $200 on the flop (I think) is the best play.

Here's why. This bet will probably force the SB out. The other player (if weak)will know he is beat and likely fold then and there. A stronger player will likely play back at you on the flop, or possibly call and try to value bet the turn for as much as he thinks you'll call. The play back or call will tell you a lot more about the strength of his hand. Assuming he is not a total fish.

If he is, it doesn't much matter. If he stays at that table more than an hour or two, he'll be broke before he leaves.

Pardon if this doesn't come across clearly, but I have never been able to articulate well my thinking when it comes to poker. Please, anyone feel free to critique my anser.

Pogue

[Paluka]

When I advocated raising the flop, I was assuming we were not calling the $280 on the turn. If you think calling the turn is a viable option, I actually prefer this to raising the flop.

[theBruiser500]

turnipmonster, i don't agree with your contention that if you raise the flop and check the turn you will almost always face a pot sized bet on the river. first of all, if you raise the flop and get called what hand could you possibly be facing that you beat? maybe a worse jack or less likely an overpair but with both those hands a full pot sized bet seems unlikely. if you raise the flop, check the turn and he bets big on the river i think you can safely fold.

"in the first case of raising the flop I show a lot of weakness by checking the turn "

how much weakness can you really be showing after a reraise on the flop in an unraised pot preflop? basically i think that it is unlikely you will have to pay a lot more to see a showdown and also, if they do bet a lot it well defines their hand.

alternatively. if you raise the flop and might want to call his river pot bet for whatever reason, how about doing a small bet on the turn? then he either checkraise you and you can make an easy fold or he will let you check it on the river.

[turnipmonster]

everything I posted kind of assumed we for whatever reason wanted to see a showdown. if a showdown is not necessarily in our future (i.e. against an unknown/solid player) I agree with calling the flop the folding the turn. basically I think calling the flop is just as scary to opponents as raising.

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

to many players it will look like a resteal on a scary board. I just don't think that an opponent with any kind of hand (even one we beat) will find it in him to check the river after the turn gets checked. too often they just assume you don't have anything and bet it. we can maybe agree to disagree on this point. it really depends on whether or not raising the flop will get you to a free showdown. if it will, then I agree it is probably the cheapest play.

--turnipmonster

[SomeName]

this post doesnt have near enough information to respond to, but I will give it a shot anyway. I dont see how you should even be calling here on the flop vs your average opposition. Flopping trips in no limit in this manner is pretty similar to flopping top pair with the 10 kicker. with 2 opponents in yeah sure they might not have you beat, but if you are a good player sometimes you have to fold a winner.

[cockandbull]

im just wondering what range of hands people put him on. im just wondering why noone has put him on 55 for the flop f/h. i would probably raise the flop, and fold to any futher action. i dont think you can beat much here, if he is playing the other j then at best your a split.

[Jonny]

I prefer raising to flop. If you are raised back at, easy fold. If not, check the turn through. Call/bet if checked to on river (asumming the sb folded on the flop).