Table gave me a free card and 8 more outs. Still, worth the call?

[AlphaMeridian]

Paradise Poker 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero ?

Recently, I've _really_ been trying to focus on when to fold. I've been having a lot of trouble converting # of outs to pot odds calculations. I'm thinking here that perhaps it's worth a call? Also, I lost a link to a GREAT odds page, where odds to make a hand by the turn/river was presented nicely, so i can't access it on the fly. But anyway, getting back to this hand, i'm here with 44, the table grants me the free card, and my 2 outs (4s) gets balloned to 10, 8s, 3s, the last 2 fours, even though the 8s might be tainted since then a 9 will make a higher straight. The table was pretty loose, and rarely aggressive, so I was expecting most of the table to call behind me. Still, at the heart of it, at the turn, there's only 3.5BB, and I'm out of position. Call or fold?

-Alpha

[Richard Berg]

Fold unless 100% of gutshots will drop + 0% chance of having it raised behind. SB is betting into 7 players, so you are behind and may not even have the best draw. The pot is tiny, your outs are tainted by made straights + bigger straights that may fall + clubs + high chance of splitting the pot, and you may have to pay 2+ bets to see the turn.

(edit) PS if you must continue, raise

[Jeff]

Very weak hand, you ARE beat, which means you are drawing to a weak 4 outer. If you think it's a bluff, raise to isolate him. Well, you'd raise to isolate him if you had better position.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Very weak hand, you ARE beat, which means you are drawing to a 2 outer. If you think it's a bluff, raise to isolate him. Well, you'd raise to isolate him if you had better position.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not a 2-outer. He's got the low end of the OESD + his 2 outs for the set (which, since they complete a SD, are certainly not clean).

I think a fold is ok here, though, since the only card you're really happy with is a 3.

Rob

[Jeff]

Yeah, those two outs don't even count, I didn't even look at the board carefully because it was so "obvious" to me

[Richard Berg]

I rate the hand at about 4.5 outs.

3's: 4 outs minus [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] minus chance of split pot = 3
4's: 2 outs minus large chance of making a str8 = 0.5
8's: 4 outs minus [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] minus chance of losing the whole pot = 1

[Sent]

Fold, pot is small. You really only have 3 outs to a non-club 3. Any 4 gives an 8 a straight or a flush with the 4c. Any 8 gives someone with a 9 a better straight or a flush.

-Sent

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, those two outs don't even count, I didn't even look at the board carefully because it was so "obvious" to me

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF? You said he had 2 outs. He has 4 3's. I was just pointing out that you said he had 2 outs, which is wrong. I still agree that he should fold, but knowing the facts before advocating a line is a good idea. If it was a typo, that's fine. No biggie. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

[Jeff]

I was rolling eyes at myself (Used to other forum with rolleyes icon, excuse me). I didn't observe the situation carefully. I'm the idiot here, I thought my previous post made it clear.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I was rolling eyes at myself (Used to other forum with rolleyes icon, excuse me). I didn't observe the situation carefully. I'm the idiot here, I thought my previous post made it clear.

[/ QUOTE ]
Heh. It's all good. Thought you were rolling your eyes at me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob