Wasted bet on the river?

[Alexthegreat]

I think checking the turn is the smart play here...maybe you get a free card, maybe not, but I don't think you can expect your A high to win this pot....so go for a free card and check/fold the river if you get no help....You are betting their hands for them, and unless they BOTH have busted draws, betting the turn and river isn't going to send them anywhere.....

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can expect your A high to win this pot...

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No, it won't. When I said "as long as my ace overcard is good," I meant as long as it gave me three good outs to a pair of aces (that is, I'm not reverse-dominated, and nobody already has two pair or better). My ace won't always give me additional outs, so I need to discount it. Not sure how much, exactly. But on this particular hand, with the benefit of seeing my opponents' cards, an ace on the river (as well as any heart) would have won me the pot, so I actually had more than my fair share of pot equity on the turn, and my turn bet was actually a good value bet -- although I didn't know it at the time.

[tolbiny]

so I actually had more than my fair share of pot equity on the turn,

You have 12 cards out of 46 after you turn bet- barely over 26% of the cards out there help you- your turn bet is not a value bet with a maximum of 2 callers.
Also there is the possibility of a c/r from the sb if he has 2 pair or a set (which hurts you the most since when this happens you either 9 or 8 outs, no longer 12) and the LP player could have been waiting till the turn to raise his set.

[arkady]

you have TWO opponents, chance of both them folding is VERY VERY slim and if anyone has Tp or MP (and its almost obvious they do) you are banging your head against a wall.

[tolbiny]

want to weigh in on the turn bet argument arkady?

[arkady]

after hero caps, i believe the turn bet is almost mandatory considering the turn card probably did not improve them. This is where middle pair *might* lay down, but it is party and we know that aint happening and while he is still drawing and will lose this more often than not, turn bet is good. River bet though...don't agree with it. Bleeding chips is all it is.

[J.R.]

On the turn his opponents are getting 12-1 to call. At best we are hoping the SB went ape on the flop with a draw (which is consistent with the sb's turn check, but so is a check-raise as hero capped the flop after raising preflop from the big blind so the SB should expect hero to bet the turn), but we know the sb isn't folding for one more bet on the turn.

Yet to act on the turn is the button who called two bets on the flop twice so its highly unlikely the button folds anything as the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a blank. Whatever the button had on the flop didn't get better, but the button has to realize your hand didn't get any better either.

Maybe A high is best and maybe you have value if called in 2 spots but those are highly improbable maybes and most often you are drawing to less than 1/3rd of the deck and betting the turn open you up to a raise while having almost no bluff equity. Furthermore, the button appears passive so a free card is quite possible.

[arkady]

I see what you are saying, but I am simply maintaining that if you have any chance to win UI and get a free showdown, then u gotta bet the turn. If you get raised on the turn, then throw it away because even if you catch your A you will not win at that point.

Ok, chances of winning UI are practically nill.

[Garland]

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Wasted bet on the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, because once it gets to the river with 14 big bets, you're not going to get both of them to fold. SB is not letting go of Qx for dear life.

Garland

[StellarWind]

I do not like the flop raise in front of the field.

The primary argument in favor of the raise is "clean up the ace". Guess what? I have a jack kicker. I'm not afraid of Ax. Actually I hope he pays off when I make my ace.

Once in a great while you can isolate against SB with a draw and win unimproved when neither of you makes anything. But the truth is the scenarios where you win by raising are very unlikely and this pot is not very big.

I prefer to keep my chips in my stack and my opponents in the pot.

Raising the turn will almost never cause you to win the hand. They will rarely fold and you often would win anyway. It places an 1 or 2 extra BB in a serious -EV position whenever Button would have given a free card, Button is sandbagging, or SB is checkraising.

Bluffing the river is clearly wrong. Yes, it is entirely possible they might both fold. If your hand is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I completely get it. Take a shot at 11-1 if you want to. But AJ? You have the nut busted draw. No one is going to fold a pair at this point with this draw-laden board. If you bet and they both fold, it's because you were winning anyway.

The real question on this deal is whether you should call the river if Button bets behind you and SB folds. Tough one but I say yes assuming this player is typical low-level in that he might bluff a busted draw but will miss a ton of thin value bets with low pairs.