AKs Flop Laydown

[Nick C]

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You think I should peel turn and river? Yeah the spades are out there, and JTs is a possibility. I did consider this that villain would bet and bluff a draw , and if I choose to call down I'm only getting around 4:1 on my money (reverse implied odds). Am I good 25% of the time? If he's on a big draw will I be good 25% of the time?

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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You're actually getting closer to 5:1, aren't you? (If you win, you also collect Villain's turn and river bets.) Plus, I think you need to at least see the turn, to try to spike an ace. KJ is mathematically 3 times as likely as 66, and we can't even narrow Villain down to just those hands.

And once you're at the turn, you're getting more like 6:1 on a calldown.

KJ and 66 is 12 combos you're losing to. QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, and Js9s is four combos you're beating.

I don't know. On some turns (such as a non-ace spade) I think you can give it up, but I would call on a blank.