3bet fold to a cap?

[Walrus]

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we only need like a 10-20% chance

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You say 10-20%, Redd says 67%. That's a big difference. I am trying to learn spots to value bet more, but this spot doesn't feel right to me. I would hate to laydown top 2 here.

In light of that, I'd rather put one bet in here (call) than put 2 in to fold (with a slim chance for a call by a worse hand). Or worse yet, call a cap, with virtually no chance to win the showdown that I could have had 2 bb's ago...

So, imo, call > bet-fold > bet-call.

[jba]

not sure where i got the 10-20% but it's way off. Redd is pretty much on I think. if we're ahead of AQ(8)/KQ(8)/QT(8)/Q9(6) and behind KT(16) and AdKd/AdTd so we're good 30:18

[kidcolin]

His river numbers would be nice. If he's a typical 20/17 2+2er, 3-betting has very little value here, for the reasons red stated. Lone Qs fold, a couple of unlikely 2 pairs call, and flushes and straights cap us.