Are Winrates Normally Distributed?

[Derek123]

This would suggest that winrates are not normally distributed, which would mean you are more likely to run good but the bad runs will be worse.


This sentence seems backwards to me. If it is skewed to the left, there are more instances of bad, but the few big wins make up for it.

[Justin A]

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This would suggest that winrates are not normally distributed, which would mean you are more likely to run good but the bad runs will be worse.


This sentence seems backwards to me. If it is skewed to the left, there are more instances of bad, but the few big wins make up for it.

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Yeah you're right. I think Josh got it mixed up.

In an extreme sense, it's like we're usually treading water with a few really good runs in between that makes our results better.

[MarkD]

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In an extreme sense, it's like we're usually treading water with a few really good runs in between that makes our results better.

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LOL, this is funny because this quote seems to very accurately describe my experience at poker. Nice big bursts between periods of losing or breaking even.

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In an extreme sense, it's like we're usually treading water with a few really good runs in between that makes our results better.

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LOL, this is funny because this quote seems to very accurately describe my experience at poker. Nice big bursts between periods of losing or breaking even.

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This has been my experience as well. Since I moved up to 15/30 in May and later 20/40 in September, I have never had a losing month, but I did make about half my money in one 30 day span in which I ran insanely well, and as a result, played a ton of hands.

What the other poster said about taking random hands and combining them to make a sample is appropriate. As tilt proof as all of us think we are (or aren't), it is still perhaps not an accurate statement to call each group of 100 hands independent. Combining hands from different sessions to form samples would be a much better indicator of overall play in my opinion.