KJo in LAGgy hand

[Hashiell_Dammett]

I think you have to bet the river here and fold if reraised.
The pot size alone is enough to justify it and the way you played it, you're representing the made nut flush on the turn (or at least a nut flush draw). Even a donkey will fold his Td or even Qd here often enough to make it worth your while.

[Aaron W.]

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I think you have to bet the river here and fold if reraised.
The pot size alone is enough to justify it and the way you played it, you're representing the made nut flush on the turn (or at least a nut flush draw). Even a donkey will fold his Td or even Qd here often enough to make it worth your while.

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How does the size of the pot justify betting the river? Do you think there's a non-zero chance of everyone folding (rounded to the nearest .1%, that is)? Do you think I'm ahead often enough when I get called?

[Hashiell_Dammett]

How does the size of the pot justify betting the river? Do you think there's a non-zero chance of everyone folding (rounded to the nearest .1%, that is)? Do you think I'm ahead often enough when I get called?

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Yes. I think if button calls with K9 (or worse) there's 1 in 10 chance that a Td will fold. That is, assuming that someone has a Td. I would hate to have a pot this size get checked around and see some yahoo drag it with 3s 3d.

[Aaron W.]

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How does the size of the pot justify betting the river? Do you think there's a non-zero chance of everyone folding (rounded to the nearest .1%, that is)? Do you think I'm ahead often enough when I get called?

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Yes. I think if button calls with K9 (or worse) there's 1 in 10 chance that a Td will fold. That is, assuming that someone has a Td. I would hate to have a pot this size get checked around and see some yahoo drag it with 3s 3d.

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I don't think Td is going to fold the third nuts, especially at these levels. I don't know if I would fold the third nuts here because there are lots of strong hands that will make the call (staight, lower flushes, sets, two pair). Besides, why else would Td call the turn except to try to river the flush? [As I said in another post, I probably would have folded Td on the turn.] I think button calls with anything on the river that he would bet the turn with, except for maybe AK (maybe).