#11
|
|||
|
|||
Re: river action with KK
[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about winning the most from 99/AK and losing the least to AA. Although after I cap pf and 3-bet the turn, I think chances are extremely slim that he has AK, so it's either 99 or AA. I'm not quite sure which one is more likely. I think that if he has 99 he's most likely not gonna raise the river. [/ QUOTE ] in a 13sb pot on the flop im WAY more likely to call 99 than AA Barron |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Re: river action with KK
[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about winning the most from 99/AK and losing the least to AA. Although after I cap pf and 3-bet the turn, I think chances are extremely slim that he has AK, so it's either 99 or AA. I'm not quite sure which one is more likely. I think that if he has 99 he's most likely not gonna raise the river. [/ QUOTE ] If this is what you believe, then I think you should go for the checkraise. Whether to checkraise or bet/3bet depends on what you think your opponent will do. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: river action with KK
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm worried about winning the most from 99/AK and losing the least to AA. Although after I cap pf and 3-bet the turn, I think chances are extremely slim that he has AK, so it's either 99 or AA. I'm not quite sure which one is more likely. I think that if he has 99 he's most likely not gonna raise the river. [/ QUOTE ] If this is what you believe, then I think you should go for the checkraise. Whether to checkraise or bet/3bet depends on what you think your opponent will do. [/ QUOTE ] could be one of those JAsucker c'r to save bets [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Barron |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Re: river action with KK
wow, i havent played the party 30 much recently.
this looks like the most obvious river checkcall to me. you are a big dog i think, wow. bet/threebet? jesus. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Re: river action with KK
I think AA would have raised you on the flop, at least to get MP2 out...I'd say you're looking at 99 -- just do the reverse checkraise and bet right into him, planning to 3-bet
|
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Re: river action with KK
He capped the turn. if you check the river he will bet. Then you c/r and call his 3 bet. If 4 bets go in on this river, you re good maybe 5% of the time. Maybe. But you want 2-3 bets ging in for sure, so it seems like an easy c/r call a 3 bet.
|
#17
|
|||
|
|||
results
I check-raised the river. Villian 3-bet. I called and lost to AA.
I think it was the right line given that I thought it was a toss up between 99 and AA. Preflop play would lean towards AA while flop play leans towards 99. Both hands would play the turn the same I believe. |
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Re: results
[ QUOTE ]
I check-raised the river. Villian 3-bet. I called and lost to AA. I think it was the right line given that I thought it was a toss up between 99 and AA. [/ QUOTE ] that makes no sense. you are saying you were even money to have the best hand, so u went ahead and layed 3:2? yeah, not good. [ QUOTE ] Both hands would play the turn the same I believe. [/ QUOTE ] disagree. alot of ppl would just call down after three w/ 99 and i believe that is the correct play in many instances. |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Re: river action with KK
*Edit*
Okay, the following does not apply to the given situation as there is some danger we are behind. We could modify the formulae below accordingly. However, I will still leave my original post unedited as I think it is important for those cases where we do think that we are ahead 100% of the time. Only because we are fairly certain that villan will bet when we check it does not mean that a check/raise is the way to go. Let us assume the following. 1) Villan never folds 2) If Villan plans to 3-bet a c/r, then he would also cap a 3-bet and vice versa. 3) We are ahead 100% of the time Let's define the following terms: P(R) = Probability that villan raises if we bet P(B) = Probability that villan bets if we check Because of 2), we need only look at the cases where villain is not intending to cap. In these cases, we have: EV(Bet) = 3*P(R) + 1 - P(R) = 2*P(R) + 1 EV(Checkraise) = 2*P(B) Thus betting is better than checkraising if the following holds P(R) + 0.5 > P(B) So we have to ask: Is he really 50% more likely to bet when we check than to raise when we bet? In my opinion, given his possible hand ranges discussed, this is clearly not the case. Thus, I bet |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|