Llabb's Locks (NBA)

[llabb]

Early Wed:

Det -5 +119
NOK +8 +101

Think Det matches up well here, able to contain NJ's Big 3, while dominating them down low. -4 is too little IMO, even on NJ's home court. Continuing my +odds strategy because +119 looks pretty good to me for the extra point.

NOK has been solid this year, with Chris Paul and David West stepping up. Overall record pretty close to Denver in fact. Denver good at home, but laying way too many points with Melo out. +8.5 looks solid for NOK to me, again giving a little bit on the line to get +odds though.

[llabb]

Not playing this for record, just small plays for myself. Phi/Por is a track meet, only had low 1Q b/c Phi couldn't buy a bucket shooting under 35%. Pace should continue.

Phi/Por 2H O 94

[llabb]

Last night: 4-4, +0.1u
YTD: 71-61, +0.2u

Was 1H -6 +102
Ind +2 +113
Sac +5 +105
Cha +6 +107
Chi +1 +102

In most cases, taking the better team while on the road but getting points.

[llabb]

Not much action tomorrow. I gave SA -3 and Uta -3, and they both opened at -2.5. If Uta was giving any more points, LAL would be a possibility, but both teams are awful. Only Thurs play for now:

LAL/Uta U 176 +103 2u

Both teams are awful, and both records have some real stinkers in them in the 150's and 160's. Playing against each other, this just looks nasty. And in Utah, with them dictating the pace, it should be Jerry Sloan slow-it-down ball. Giricek likely out for another game loses some of the little O Uta has, while AK back will bring blocks and defense, but not add a ton to offense. Kobe a bricklayer this season against decent D's, and he hogs all the shots. Uta allows the fewest shot attempts in the league, and out of shots taken, both teams suck at 41%.

Like the play, but my 2u's have sucked, so tread lightly.

[llabb]

Last night: 2-5 -2.8u
YTD: 73-66 -2.6u

Bad picks and regression to the mean both hurting me, coming back down towards 50% and horrible recently. The last couple days, my intital impressions with overnight plays were solid, going 3-1 on Tues and 2-0 on Wed, and then the followup plays on gameday were terrible, going 1-3 on Tues and 0-5 on Wed. Perhaps I should limit myself to initial strong plays on overnights, while I work through this bad stretch.

Anyway, the LAL/Uta U was taken last night, so I'll stick with that as my only side or total for the day.

Off the record, it's a light day, and I took a flyer on a couple WSEX player props, Terry +3.5 against Parker and Okur +1.5 against Odom. -115 is a lot of juice, but these lines look pretty soft. Terry is taking a lot more shots than normal and scoring a ton with Josh Howard out. Odom is streaky, is more of a passer in the Lakers scheme anyway, and goes up against a tough Utah defense, guarded by shot-blocking monster AK.

[llabb]

Early Fri plays. Have a number of them, but my own lines are several points off from these. These are all my intitial impressions, so these should be solid, as I'm not talking myself into games here. That will come tomorrow, when I have to resist taking more.

Tor +3 +109
Bos -2 +115
NOK +2 +107
Cle -4 +100
Min -2 +106

[llabb]

Fri totals:

Tor/Atl U 193 +100
Orl/Mem U 172 +104
Cle/Sea O 203.5 +103

Also like Det to blow out NY, but at -12, do not want the back door cover risk. Game could easily be a Det win in the high teens the whole game, then only win by 10. NY sucks, but their bench is competitive towards the end of games, since the rookies still have energy and everyone is fighting for a starting spot, with Larry jumbling the roster around on a regular basis. Therefore will look at Det 1H line tomorrow.