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Old 11-25-2005, 01:38 AM
MushashiAce MushashiAce is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4
Default Re: My Bustout Hand--Oh The Humanity!!

I have two responses to your post [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img].

1) The explanation of the hand makes no sense, how'd you bust when you had two black kings with trips on the turn? Obviously some detail is wrong here

2) WIth pocket kings and a flop like that, 12900 is 12900/45000=28.6% of your total stack, figure his raise of 6000 on the flop, so the pot is actually equavalent to(12900+6000)/45000=42% your total stack, this is easily a must win pot, as it represents nearly half your total stack in the tourney, that alone would warrant an all in,but lets continue to analyze. Your read places him on the following hands:
AT (4 aces * 3 Ten=12 combinations)* .75% (Your odds against that hand)= 9
KT(2*3=6)*.88=5.28
AA(3+2+1=6)*.1=.6
QQ(6)=.9=5.4
JJ(6)*.9=5.4
TT(2+1=3)*.15=.45
99 (3)*.15=.45
66 (3)*.15=.45

Totals> Combinations = 45, Equity= ~27: 27/45= 60% equity

Unless I screwed up the calculations above, against all the hands you mentioned, you have a 60% chance to win. Therefore, I think going all in was the right play here.
Note: The above analysis is your equity if he were to call you with all the hands mentioned above.

Any comments of this analysis?
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