Did I miss a bet?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I mostly agree about MP1 but I don't think he folds every time here, However his role is minor compared to the fact that we have the best hand more than 50% of times against the average player (button) at 2/4.

[/ QUOTE ]

x: probability we're beat by Button
y: probability MP1 calls a 3-bet.
z: probability MP1 calls the raise.

EV call:
z*(1 - x) - x

EV raise:
(1-x) + 2y(1 - x) - 3x


Let's assume we're ahead of Button 60% of the time, MP1 will call 2 more bets 20% of the time and 1 more 90%. That would give us:

EV call:
0.9*(1 - 0.40) - (0.40) = 0.14BB

EV raise:
(1-0.40) + 2*0.2*(1-0.40) - 3*0.4 = -0.36BB


These reasonable estimations and perfectly proves calling>>raising.

EDIT: This calculation is just comparing the 2 alternative action, which for example means that raising is of course better than folding. Didn't want to cause any confusion about that. The conclusion is that calling is 0.5BB better in EV than raising using these numbers.