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#1
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Why give them a chance? What do you put them on?
SB sure looks like KQ/AQ/QQ. The Q on board is a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so well over half of those hands have a big club. If he has an overpair instead, "only" half of those hands have a big club. 77 is safe, but it's a stretch to put him on exactly that. BB might be a total donkey, but he sure is determined to draw to something. Moreover, his fishy tendencies don't really help you at all: he may be too passive to raise you when his crappy K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draws out, fearing the nuts, but he's never ever folding a better hand. |
#2
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Don't you think BB will make a crying call with top set or AA KK?
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#3
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[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think BB will make a crying call with top set or AA KK? [/ QUOTE ] Maybe, but the math doesn't add up. Since they're never folding a better hand and you'll often be raised, you need to be ahead significantly >50% of the time to make a value bet. Unfortunately, even if you're 100% certain that SB has nothing (yeah right) and can put BB on exactly AA/KK/QQ/AQ, by pure combinatorics you will be ahead only about 45% of the time. Once you factor in the extra likelihood that his turn aggression reflected a big redraw, you'll find you're way way off the mark. |
#4
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This is ridiculous. You can't use combinatorics and say how likely the guy is to have a bigger flush. The fact that he checked the river shows just how unlikely it is. People don't checkraise here because its a mega scare card. I think this is a very easy value bet. Also I fold preflop.
-DeathDonkey |
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