25NL AA SB, overplayed again?

[Godfather80]

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I think betting the river seems right. If you check, you have an autocall if/when he bets. By betting you may get some value from a hand that would check behind had you checked (AQ or KQ for example). If he has you beat he's getting your money anyway.

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This makes no sense. If Hero is behind, he'll lose the river bet whether he lead bets or check/calls. If Hero is ahead, however, he loses nothing by check/calling and gains any possible bluff from Villain. If Hero is ahead and lead bets on the river, Villain will fold some of the hands that would have bet if Hero had checked. Do you see how the river check/call earns us more money against Villain's handrange than the lead bet?

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I agree with your analysis; however, with villain on a short stack, you are giving odds for anything but air to call in this instance. Please let me know if I am missing something here.

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I just think by checking the river, you lose nothing. If villain doesn't have enough to take a stab in this situation, then he certainly won't pay you off if you bet. My thought is that the river check perfectly represents either A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Kx or AxK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain will probably take the initiative on a check, but I see it from you side as well. You did give him 5:1 on a river call.