A7o Hand Nfinity and I Disagreed On

[kapw7]

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Dude, 30 hands of stats are not nothing, no matter how you slice it. Thirty hands of stats are just that - thirty hands of stats. Sure, some players get variable runs of cards that can skew those stats from their true stats, but our current measurement of his VPIP is an unbiased estimator of his true VPIP.

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Or else "I have a winrate of 6bb/100 per xxxx hands. I crash the [censored] game." Anyway, I prefer to go with the majority of established HUSH posters on this one.


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Also, checking this turn is nowhere near a 1 BB mistake.

[/ QUOTE ] "nearly" is the word you missed in my post. You can make more than 1BB if ahead. You can make less if you get outdrawn etc. You are more times ahead here than behind. You lose more than the 1 SB that playing 72o UTG costs (which is just an eaxample)


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It sounded like you didn't want to put villain on a range because his stats were so meaningless. Care to chime in with what your range of hands is such that checking this turn is such a gigantic mistake?

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For me it's enough to assume that he most likely doesn't have an ace. That's it. Thinking more on the basis of insufficient information is at best a useless waste of time. You forgot to see what cards YOU had and you made an insufficient read that you gave too much importance on it. That's all.

[milesdyson]

start dropping some names fanboy, and while you're at it, get them to come into this thread and agree with you.

nearly everything you've said in this thread is borderline retarded.

[WalkAmongUs]

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Betting top-top pair is too agressive for you? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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No, I just meant in general. (Hence my comment about learning this concept.) I think many players feel obliged to continue their aggression postflop after raising preflop. We don't need to feel bad about passive lines. (Not that this hand should be played passively - just a general comment again.)

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Very true. its this tendency that makes newer players bet into 5 or 6 players with UI AK. They figure "well I raised/reraised before the flop so if I don't bet then everyone knows my hand (or whatever the reason is)"

What they SHOULD be thinking is "I'm against a pretty large field here, the chances someone floppd at least a pair are pretty good. I'm behind ANY PAIR right now. Does it look like the flop could have connected with any hands my opponents would play?"

[kapw7]

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start dropping some names fanboy, and while you're at it, get them to come into this thread and agree with you.

nearly everything you've said in this thread is borderline retarded.

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There is still some hope for me then!

I envy your IQ. Since you came up with this final argument. LOL.

...And that was my last (meaningful) word on this thread. The careful reader can make his own mind. I don't have anything more to say here...

[MrWookie47]

OK, I'm trying to be civil, but you're coming off like a real jerk here. You're also disregarding a lot of good information put up here by a lot of people who know poker.

You want to bring up the convergence of winrates? Sure, let's do it. The fact of the matter is that if someone is winning at 5 BB/100 over 5k hands, even though you and I both know they're not that good over 100k hands, it's still more likely that they're a winning player than a player with a 1 BB/100 win rate or a -2 BB/100 win rate.

Deferring to "established HUSH posters" is just poor form. First of all, deferring to authority is a lousy form of argument. If we're all wrong, do us a favor and prove it. At the very least, post a link where one of these "established posters" shows that I'm irrefutably wrong. Second of all, your attitude which I perceive to be that posters in the HUSH forum know more than established micro posters is both foolhardy and insulting. Just because someone plays lower stakes than another doesn't make them a worse player. It certainly doesn't mean you can't learn something from them. You sound like someone who assumes that any post from a poster with 43 total posts to their name can't possibly be as good as someone who's got a Carpal Tunnel under their name. Preposterous. You're missing out on a lot of good stuff from new posters, and you're swallowing too much junk from your "established posters." Frankly, there are many players on this board whose knowledge of poker meets or exceeds the best that HUSH has to offer on a daily basis.

As for your "range" of hands, I actually agree with you that I don't think that villain has a single A. I think AK very rarely plays this way. Is that the only qualifier you're putting on his range? Can he have 88? JJ? T9? 32? QQ? AA? K2? If you're putting villain on any hand that is not Ax, you're doing yourself a disservice. Failing to take into account his stats and his preflop 3bet is by no means a "useless waste of time."

Finally, no, I didn't miss your "nearly." I answered that checking the turn was not near a 1 BB mistake.

[kapw7]

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Yes, it is too aggressive in this situation. When I saw the flop, my plan was to c/c, c/c, bet the river, and play poker if raised. Betting this flop is pretty poor.

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OK 1 more word. I don't disagree with your flop play. I would personally bet a. b/c I don't trust 30 hands of PT stats without MY OWN reads (It can sometimes take only 1 hand to see if someone is passive or whatever else). b. If I bet and get raised I spend +1SB but i 've seen a PP to raise this a lot of times so it can turn my play profitable even if I am behind more times than I am ahead. But this is b/c of my own style of playing (I go for a pot steal a lot of times so usually ppl don't give me credit for an ace here esp. if they hold a big PP. They will usually raise me on the flop and keep betting me all the way with their KK or whatever).

Again my main criticism was for the turn play.

[kapw7]

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OK, I'm trying to be civil, but you're coming off like a real jerk here. You're also disregarding a lot of good information put up here by a lot of people who know poker.

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If I came off like that I do apologise to you and all the posters here. I have a lot of respect for posters here that's why i still post and read these forums. Unforunately some people don't like to hear a different opinion and give replies that they don't make any positive contribution.

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Deferring to "established HUSH posters" is just poor form. First of all, deferring to authority is a lousy form of argument.

[/ QUOTE ] I always had problemswith authority (see my avatar). You are also regared as an authority here so...

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Second of all, your attitude which I perceive to be that posters in the HUSH forum know more than established micro posters is both foolhardy and insulting.

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I hate to say that as much as you but it's true. On average of course. As there are a lot of 10/20 lousy players (that are cocky and run good) and a lot of superb 1/2 or less players (that they know what they are talking about). I have the right to disagree with any of them [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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Finally, no, I didn't miss your "nearly." I answered that checking the turn was not near a 1 BB mistake.

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Cool. I wasn't trying to estimate the EV. My point was to show that, according to my view, a turn check is a bigger mistake than a typical preflop mistake.

[bottomset]

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I don't disagree with your flop play. I would personally bet

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say what??

I put him on a pair of jacks----same----bet

[BluEsiNsOuL]

Stats over 30ish hands can very well define a player. There will always be extreme cases, but extreme cases are not our primary concern. I display my own stats at each table and I don't see it go off very often.

That's the only information we got so far, I don't think ignore it is a wise idea.

To those who suggest bet/fold the turn, what's your line if villain just call? I believe that's the villain's line here.
No he won't raise you until the river.