Downswings

[RedBean]

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How long do [censored] downswings usually last?
Is it normal to be losing the vast majority of all ins when you're a favorite for a month or more at a time? 65/35 and 70/30 edges are meaningless to me. Because my stomach drops whenever I see that I'm favored like that. It's a sure loser.

Seriously, any notion of how long downswings can last would help me out. I'm on the verge of quitting the game because I don't know if I'm a good player anymore.

I know my sample size isn't big enough but I built my bankroll from $100 to $2000 through SNGs and last month's ITM% was 45%. I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs. Since I haven't changed my play, is this a cold run or do I need to question whether or not I should even play this game?

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Don't beat yourself up over a downswing that spans 25 games. It can and will get worse at times.

As for the seemingly endless losses with 70/30's you talk about, take solace in knowing you got in with the best of it, regardless of the results.

Also understand, that even while it may seem they are "sure losers" during your bad run, they a 70/30 is a 70/30 every time. In the long run, those payoff. Think marathon, not sprint.

You can't control variance, you can only hope to contain it. If you can't handle the variance at your current level, find one where you can.

[Shilly]

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You can't control variance, you can only hope to contain it.

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That's awesome.

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As for the seemingly endless losses with 70/30's you talk about, take solace in knowing you got in with the best of it, regardless of the results.

Also understand, that even while it may seem they are "sure losers" during your bad run, they a 70/30 is a 70/30 every time. In the long run, those payoff. Think marathon, not sprint.


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Good post. If you find yourself losing out on these 70/30 situations, the thing to remember is you made the correct play. You will find you will have a run where these always hold up eventually. I have just been through a mini run of of 5 underpairs making a set against me after they have moved all in, which aint nice but again its a case of the long run.

[HesseJam]

I dunno,

during the las 100 tourneys I felt that I've won most of them when I didn't deserve to win (went in with the worst of it but sucked out at crucial points) and busted out a lot of times when I thought I deserved to win. At Party I played a very tight aggresssive game and variance was a lot higher than at Stars where I play a more active (also a tad looser)/ aggressive game.

So far, variance at Party was way higher than at Stars. OTH, I have only 400 SnGs at each sites. So I probably cannot deduct anything from this.

[4ever]

Used SNG's on Pokerroom to build $20 into $490 over about 3 months of playing durring free time. Lost in all in two days because of variance. Its actually kind of comforting to read about someone else going through it.

[Bluff Daddy]

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Used SNG's on Pokerroom to build $20 into $490 over about 3 months of playing durring free time. Lost in all in two days because of variance. Its actually kind of comforting to read about someone else going through it.

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you were playing to high for your bankroll or just really suck

[Hornacek]

I recommend moving up buyins after every loss. Double down, baby! Martingale system WORKS.

[se2schul]

Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

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Doesn't anyone on this forum lose due to bad play??

It seems that everyone here assumes they are a good player when they're winning, yet any sort of downswing is attributed variance and not poor play. Seems kinda suspect to me...

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That's what I'm trying to figure out. Am I playing poorly or is this just a bad run? Maybe it is a bad run amplified by poor play.

Those are the things I'm hoping to figure out with the help of the constructive posters on this forum. Especially the guy who said, 'Awwwww' because that helped me learn.

[kevstreet]

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Good post...

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What the hell is going on around here? I take off a couple of days from the STT forum to come back and find this. It sure is getting soft around here. Is the reverse "lunatiC" on vacation?

Anyway, 25 OOTM is nothing, sample size, you got your chips in with the best of it, bad beat, read the FAQ, keep playing good poker, take a day off, review hand histories, all of the cliche's apply here.