Lets try this again...

[captZEEbo1]

"My eyes...the goggles do nothing!"

[gomberg]

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares what he bets? You're willing to blow off your whole stack on the turn in a situation where you're telling us that you'll only get called if you're beat (if he's folding better hands, I'm assuming he'll fold every worse hand other than maybe TP + flush draw), but you're not willing to call an all in bet on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably would have called river, but didn't know how often he bluffs in that spot on the river once I call a pot bet on the turn in a decent sized pot.

This has been a crappy month for me, so I've been experimenting a little bit... I didn't want to give this hand up cause his range is big enough there for me to play on, but didn't want to let him hit on the river. And being oop I erred on the side of aggression. We weren't all that deep, so I figured it can't be too bad one way or the other.

Anyway, he thought forever then folded.

[VanVeen]

Hero thinks villain rarely has a better hand. Of those times he has a better hand, some % of the time he will fold.

Hero can check-raise the turn all-in sensibly and fold to a river all-in from opponent because the information available to Hero when he makes his decision at either 'action node' is different. Duh! Check-raising the turn all-in is esp. smart if Hero doesn't have enough information about villain's turn and river play to not avoid bleeding chips on the river but he has enough info about flop/turn play to realize the c/r all-in has a positive expectation.

I don't mind it at all.

[psuasskicker]

Hero thinks villain rarely has a better hand. Of those times he has a better hand, some % of the time he will fold.

Check-raising the turn all-in is esp. smart if Hero doesn't have enough information about villain's turn and river play to not avoid bleeding chips on the river but he has enough info about flop/turn play to realize the c/r all-in has a positive expectation.

How is it possible to come to this? If he takes the pot down on the turn, he takes down ~$470. If he's caught by a better hand, he loses ~$870. This is stupid.

He's got a good hand. It's not a great one, but it's a good one. What he DOESN'T want to do with it is push off a worse hand and only get called by better ones, which is what his bet is guaranteed to do. The only way he wants this is if there's a significant chance that villain is better and will fold his hand. There isn't a significant chance villain is better, and beyond that, there's even less of a chance he folds if he is.

Pushing all in allows villain to get off hands, for no more money, that are worse than KK but still marginally strong enough to be betting at the pot.

You're even saying there's very little chance that villain is actually ahead in this. Why on earth would you want to blow him off a worse hand???

Maybe off a draw, but what sort of draw could he possibly have - based on how he bet - that doesn't already have you beat?

- C -

[psuasskicker]

Hero can check-raise the turn all-in sensibly and fold to a river all-in from opponent because the information available to Hero when he makes his decision at either 'action node' is different. Duh!

I forgot to get to this...

I would agree with you if there were any sort of draw on that board what-so-ever that made any sense to be scared of when the river comes. What cards, exactly, does hero fear coming on that river? A deuce? A seven? An Ace?

That board is garbage. If he's not already beat, he shouldn't worry about being beat on the river. It's not like we're talking about a board with say T964 with two of two suits...there aren't many if any kill cards out there.

Which coupled with the fact that simply calling on the turn gives you no more information in the hand than by moving all in (until he calls or folds, at which time you know), means there's really no way he can justify moving in on the turn, but not be willing to call an all in on the river...especially when he seems to know that any time he gets his all in called, he's beat.

- C -

[gomberg]

The problem is that there are many straight / flush draws on this board. If the villain is a decent player postflop - then that means he'll bluff correctly on the river so that it becomes -EV for me on the next street. This is the spot I don't want to be in. Even if this guy has 2 pair, I have many outs - the only thing I don't want to see is a set / straight. A set was very unlikely as this guy raises pairs preflop most of the time, and a straight was possible but was only one of many possible hands. If I was sure this guy will push any river if I call turn, then of course I would chk call twice.

[psuasskicker]

The problem is that there are many straight / flush draws on this board.

The only logical straight draw came in on the turn. The flush draw is a thought, but A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something similar is the only one you should really be overly concerned with. Even that is very iffy, though, and probably you get called anyway.

If the villain is a decent player postflop - then that means he'll bluff correctly on the river so that it becomes -EV for me on the next street. This is the spot I don't want to be in.

This is what I don't get, though. Everything you're saying boils down to this...
- You're okay committing all your money when the only way you'll get called is if you don't have the best hand.
- You're not okay committing all your money letting him try betting you out when it's quite possible you have a better hand.

The only equity edge you have moving in on the turn is betting him off some sort of draw that would come in on the river. You don't know if he's on a draw - though it's not overly likely he is - and even if he is it's far from certain it will hit.

Do you really want to knock him off a draw here? I would think you want him calling if he's drawing with something like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]...even though he's got lots of outs, you're still a pretty hefty favorite.

I just don't see the sense in this. You're risking 2x the pot hoping he's not better than you, when you could be allowing him to commit more money with a worse hand.

- C -

[gomberg]

[ QUOTE ]
The only logical straight draw came in on the turn. The flush draw is a thought, but A T or something similar is the only one you should really be overly concerned with. Even that is very iffy, though, and probably you get called anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could also have a number of pair + flush / straight draws. This player could raise the flop w/ a mid pair hand putting me to the test.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really want to knock him off a draw here? I would think you want him calling if he's drawing with something like A T...even though he's got lots of outs, you're still a pretty hefty favorite.

I just don't see the sense in this. You're risking 2x the pot hoping he's not better than you, when you could be allowing him to commit more money with a worse hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

First off, I'm not risking 2x the pot - I'm raising about the pot. 2nd, of course I want him to call here - that would be the best result with a draw or worse hand. I also don't want to give him a free card because then I'm giving him implied odds to hit on the river. He "could" commit more money w/ a worse hand, but the EV move for me here in my mind was to push because of the awkward situation the river would bring up, and my lack of postflop knowledge of this player in bigger pots on later streets. Also, if he has me beat, it's going to be 2-pair a vast majority of the time, which he may find a fold for or if he calls I have 8 outs to fall back on.

That being said, my usual play is to let people bluff money off to me, but being OOP w/ probably a 12ish outer against me w/ roughly a pot sized bet left, I wanted to give him an opportunity to make a mistake.

[psuasskicker]

He could also have a number of pair + flush / straight draws.

Already covered.

player could raise the flop w/ a mid pair hand putting me to the test.

Yeah but this is my point. You don't want to knock a guy like this out. You want to bleed him for more money.

First off, I'm not risking 2x the pot - I'm raising about the pot.

Recheck your math. The pot is $480 before you move in...that's what you stand to win by getting him to fold. With $1k effective stacks, you're risking $870. That's more than 1.8x the size of the pot.

, of course I want him to call here - that would be the best result with a draw or worse hand. I also don't want to give him a free card because then I'm giving him implied odds to hit on the river.

This doesn't make sense though. You want him to call with a worse hand, don't want to give him a free card, and don't want to have to call on the river for a big bet when you don't know what he has?
- You already don't know what he has.
- He's not getting a free card, this card costs him the $200 he's already betting, which is indicating he's not on a draw.
- You're willing to commit your stack against him now, at a time where you're likely only getting called if you're beat, but not later when you have no idea whether he's caught up to you if you're behind?

You already don't know if you're behind. The difference here is, if he's behind, you get no more money. But on the river, if he's still behind, he'll likely blow off some more money to you.

It's mostly the logic behind this that I have a problem with. If you wanted him to fold, fine, good move. But I don't think you should want him to fold. And more importantly, if you're willing to commit your stack when you have no idea if you're ahead or behind, and want him to call, you should be willing to commit it later when he's much more likely to be sticking in money when he's behind.

- C -

[gomberg]

fair enough - good discussion.