#1
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folding the 2nd nut straight on the flop 5-10 6max
I have Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on button. Utg raises to 40, I call, BB calls. UTG has both of us covered. BB and I have around 1200
Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] bb checks, Utg bets 75, Hero raises to 225, BB check raises to 500 total. Utg calls, hero folds. What do you think? |
#2
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Re: folding the 2nd nut straight on the flop 5-10 6max
your hand is too good too often to make this lay correct sir.
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#3
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Re: folding the 2nd nut straight on the flop 5-10 6max
there are 3x4=12 AQ combos
there are 9 JT, KT, and KJ combos, making 27 total. There are 3 JJ, TT, and KK combos, making 9 total. So, there are 36 good situations, and 12 bad ones. of course, you are facing 2 opponents, so this analysis doesn't give you the whole story. Keep in mind though that your hand doesn't need to be good a majority of the time for your call to be right. Probably 40 percent is fine. Your overlay comes from the times that both of your opponents hold 2 pair or a set. You should post this in the probability forum because I don't know how to figure it. |
#4
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Re: folding the 2nd nut straight on the flop 5-10 6max
[ QUOTE ]
there are 3x4=12 AQ combos there are 9 JT, KT, and KJ combos, making 27 total. There are 3 JJ, TT, and KK combos, making 9 total. So, there are 36 good situations, and 12 bad ones. [/ QUOTE ] There are other "good situations" as well. No reads on opponents? If it is on Party, and neither player is a nit, and if you can easily afford it, call. |
#5
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Re: folding the 2nd nut straight on the flop 5-10 6max
you ignored 2 other hands which could be in the mix
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] i dont think this is so automatic, even if you're ahead with the nut straight against a set of tens and the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] gutshot royal flush draw, your equity is only 33%. (AKdd is the 37% favorite with TT in the mix, but a 54-46 underdog heads up against Q9) if its Q9 against TT and 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you're again 33% to win and this time a .33% underdog to the set. if utg has any idea what he's doing, he doesnt have 2 pair. he probably has a set, but he could have the straight and simply be hoping for a safe turn to get his money in, so he can price out the draws. the bb's hand range is wider and this is more player dependant, but it's a small raise and it seems more likely that a big draw would just move in, so im inclined to think he's got a straight. it's definitely a gambling call and i think an argument can be made for either pushing or folding, but i think when you take into account the tilt factor of getting stacked when you're drawing dead on the flop, im folding without a read on one of the player being reckless. |
#6
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Re: folding the 2nd nut straight on the flop 5-10 6max
no reads except both players have not gotten out of line from what i've seen.
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