#1
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probablity question
What are the odds of a winning , or breakeven player losing exactly 50 sessioins in a row? Assume each session had 1k hands and lasted 8 hours. Lastly how do you come to those odds? thanks alot
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#2
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Re: probablity question
you're going have to tell us your EV and standard deviation
ie: if you suck it's a hellova lot less likely |
#3
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Re: probablity question
Ok thanks for the reply.For simplicity sake lets take a 100 percent breakeven player over 500k hands
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#4
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Re: probablity question
A breakeven player has a 50% chance of losing in any session (ignoring the probability of coming out exactly even). To do that 50 sessions in a row, regardless of session length, is 1 chance in 2^50 or about 1 quintillion. That's the same ballpark as dealing three Poker hands from a well-shuffled deck and getting a royal flush and two other straight flushes.
For a winning player, it's even less likely. Therefore, based on the evidence, I bet this is a losing player. |
#5
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Re: probablity question
thank you very much for the reply.W e agree that even for the worst player on the planet it would be quite a feat to accomplish?
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#6
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Re: probablity question
[ QUOTE ]
A breakeven player has a 50% chance of losing in any session (ignoring the probability of coming out exactly even). To do that 50 sessions in a row, regardless of session length, is 1 chance in 2^50 or about 1 quintillion. [/ QUOTE ] There would be a little bit of skew for short sessions, making it slightly more likely. But I'm getting picky. And 1k hands is obviously not a short session, so your numbers make sense for the original question. |
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