The Theory of Top Set

[UATrewqaz]

I think this type of hand safely falls into the "so far ahead you can slowplay" category.

Usually in this situation your opponents are drawing dead or drawing very slim. Giving a few free/cheap cards in hopes of them improving a little is worth it.

Give someone with TT the chance to spike his "2 outter" and check raise you big, then when you push he quickly calls only to be sickened.

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First, try and do whatever is consistent what you would do with a lesser hand. If you are a very aggressive player, don't check now. Conversely, if you haven't bet the pot with anything but TPTK or better until now don't do it now. Whatever you do should seek to invite your opponents agression.

If making a stab at the pot with a small bet is a reasonable play for you, do that here. SB's check may indicate a nice c/r coming from a big pair or AQ. And your position is actually great for such a play, as all the other limpers have to act before they see whether the SB is going to c/r.

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This is sound good advice, and would normally be the correct approach for the flop, but here is a unique situation with the pf raise by the sb.
It should be noted that even if the sb had not raised pf - with this flop a "normal" raise of about 1/2 pot would probably only come from sb/bb with weak Qx - and even that is debatable - as a check raise approach seems a little better. Hardly anything can bet this flop here. Late position shooter would/should shy away from this spot and wait for the turn. A hand better than this would not be looking to bet people out of the pot -yet.

What is really interesting is that the pre-flop raise by SB pretty much sets this flop up as "booby trapped".

Almost any decent holding by SB could likely be setting up to check/raise here - and the OTHER players behind you should know this. So if you bet into the flop from the BB it should be obvious that you are lookin to pick a fight! I think the other players would prudently fold, and you will have killed your chances for a big pot - unless the sb decides to dance with you. But even if he does - he now will know you have a hand as well. Now the only hands that the SB could have AND be willing to lose alot of money with are AA,KK,AQs. The other problem is that you have REALLY cost youself if he now folds his AK,TT,or JJ.

So betting the flop here is like shooting an arrow and expecting the target to run into it.

KEY QUESTION: WHAT WILL THE SB MOST LIKELY DO ON THE TURN IF THE BOARD GIVES A DRAW MAKER?, OR AN A/K THAT HITS HIS HAND?

If he leads out and bets (which is likely) you can even make a small reraise here without giving away the true strength of your hand. That play would be hard to read, and could induce the SB as well as the players yet to act to make some serious errors.

You must wait for the SB to move first.

But if he just checks again on the turn, put him on AK or some other soured hand, and play your QQQ accordingly.

The players behind you will do the same, and will not now put you on such a strong hand. If a drawing card came on the turn and the sb checked it - I would make a really devious bet of only about 1/3 pot here to represent a possible draw to get some action going.

So the critical decision for this hand will usually come on the Turn, and NOT on the Flop as most players would assume.

[JFB37]

Very interesting post, Zizzling. The results bear out your analysis. I bet 75 and everyone folded. In retrospect, this was too strong as it was unlikely anyone behind me had anything they were going to call with.


One slightly interesting gossipy point. One of the people in the pot was (I assume) Robert Varkonyi's wife. He was sitting behind her railbirding her play.

[cincy_kid24]

Hank Scorpio said in an earlier post to simply, flat-out trust your reads, which in a situation like this - where yu have the nuts barring any bizarre runner-runner possibilities - is an absolutely correct statement. the question is whether to lead out or check raise, i dont see you getting too creative and check-calling here (although i guess that argument could be made), the pot has been raised and is multi-way so you shouldnt feel too bad if you dont get any bites when you cast your line but of course w/ top set/rainbow flop it would be nice to get some more in there.
So it comes down to basically: passive table - bet the pot / aggressive table - check raise.
Also think about what kind of image youve had so far, how many hands hv yu shown down? were they strong hands? have you tried to steal-raise lately? If you're looking like a solid/tight player then maybe the check-calling argument could be made even stronger but if you've shown down some bad hands then go ahead and lead out and pray that you get raised.
Again, I dont think there is a unifying theory that could be applied to top set or any other strong/monster hand that puts you in a spot where your decisions are based on building a large pot. If you have a good lock on your opponents and your own table image then it shouldnt be a problem to get max value out of your monsters.

[binions]

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The 3/3 PL HE game at the Vic: It is tournament week so it is busy but it is a pretty typical Vic table, a mix of solid regulers, donators and nut peddlers.

Three limpers to the sb who raises the pot. I have QQ in the bb and decide to smooth call.

Flop is a dream: Q 7 3 rainbow.

SB checks to me. I have the absolute best possible hand at the moment and there are only seven possible hands that can catch a card on the turn to beat me. Clearly, I'm a big favorite.

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7 possible hands can take the lead on the turn???

Assuming there is an A, K, 7, 3 left in the deck to hit the turn, there are

3 possible AA hands out
3 possible KK hands out
1 possible 77 hand
1 possible 33 hand

Plus the gutshot hands (which could easily be in play in a multiway, unraised pot):

16 possible 45 hands
16 possible 46 hands
16 possible 56 hands

[JFB37]

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7 possible hands can take the lead on the turn???

Assuming there is an A, K, 7, 3 left in the deck to hit the turn, there are

3 possible AA hands out
3 possible KK hands out
1 possible 77 hand
1 possible 33 hand

Plus the gutshot hands (which could easily be in play in a multiway, unraised pot):

16 possible 45 hands
16 possible 46 hands
16 possible 56 hands

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Yeah, ok. So I should have said seven "holdings" to worry about? How does this change the analysis?

What happen to the small blind? Raises out of the SB with horrible posistion and a bunch of limpers... then checks the flop?

Did you assign him to a steal, a monster hand AA; KK looking for a check raise on the flop, or do you think he completely missed with AK.

I think this has a lot of bearing on how you play the hand.

[silkyslim]

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I have the absolute best possible hand at the moment and there are only seven possible hands that can catch a card on the turn to beat me.

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What are the 7 hands?
Quick: <font color="white"> 33 77 65 54 64 KK AA </font>

I'm hoping the SB is attempting a check-raise in this spot. So I would bet, but much less than the pot to let him to go ahead and make his move. Low enough that he might be tempted to still see the turn if what he has is AK.