hand reading: BB check-reraise all-in (WCOOP #8 4th hour)

[Jason Strasser]

I'll try without reading any replies. I dont really like the ABCDEFGHIJKL answering style so I'll just do a normal analysis, professor.

The guy who opens in the CO and bets the flop is obviously a very wide range. I think trying to guess what he has is pretty pointless, except that his flop bet is small and for me a little bit scarier than if he bet more, so maybe you can somewhat narrow his range down to having somewhat of a hand. But guessing what he has seems kinda pointless.

The button called the raise and then raised the weak flop bet. Again, if this is a good player its very tough/impossible to tell what he has. His raise, though, is also small and he does it with you left to act, and doesn't really feel like a bluff to me given your description of the opponent. I'll give him a wide range from air to top set with all the draws in between, but highly weighted in the overpair/good draw/set category. Having you left to act behind him will probably deter him from bluffing.

Now comes that fish named Che. Man oh man, he's got to think he has probably close to zero folding equity pushing, even though versus many good/thinking opponents he will have some folding equity. But the combination of the fact that he has two people who have shown interest in the hand, really leads me to believe he is pushing with the intent of getting called, which probably means he does not have air, and does not have a hand like one pair of tens. A trickily played big pair like KK or AA makes sense, as well as some sort of nut draw or combination pair/draw as well might also be in the equation, but if I had to put my money on it Che has a set. I know its the obvious guess, but it's my guess and if he flopped a set with these kind of stacks he really only has one play here on the flop once he checks.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

Were you bluffing? I dont get this it seems terrible to me because of the obvious reason that you are only getting called when you are behind or basically tied (draw). You should just let this hand go on the flop. I think if you look at MLG's calling range this play has to have negative expectations because even the CO here is going to stick it in with JJ or better a majority of the time.

-Jason

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
Were you bluffing? I dont get this it seems terrible to me because of the obvious reason that you are only getting called when you are behind or basically tied (draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

So what. My stack is only a few chips larger than the current pot. Thus, if they fold 50% of the time, the push is instantly profitable by the amount of showdown equity I have when called.

The key to the hand, therefore, is how often will I be called. We need to know what % of their hand ranges they will call to know this.

Another important fact is that I have meaningful showdown equity against the button's calling range, so this is not a straight FE play.

Gotta run, more later...
Che

[fooz]

I (button) had KhQh.

T8, hunh? Guess I should've called. With the action, I figured you for AhTh or a set.


Thanks for the dblink, hadn't seen that. Anything similar, for Party?

[DonT77]

Wow, this is like a Poker 401 Mid-Quarter Exam.

A) Your range: 89h, 68h, 2hearts T or higher, Ahxh, or a set.
B) CO's range: Could be pretty wide as this could be an open-steal with a continuation bet.
C) Btn's range: His preflop call indicates some strength or a PP playing for set value - unless he thinks that the CO is on a steal and he can re-steal ATF. ATF - he could be on a re-steal here if he thinks CO will continuation bet with air, or he could have a hand like a slowplayed overpair or a set. The pot is getting quite large and with 2 hearts on board he might not want to slowplay a set or an overpair here. BTN is on a resteal or has an overpair/set.
D) CO who is getting about 2.27:1 can call with 8 outs or better (heart draw, OESD), although with made hands I think he would need at least an overpair to call given the action behind him.
E) CO should not push with any holding IMO - I'd call on a big draw or with a set to encourage BTN to call behind.
F) BTN would be getting almost 3 to 1 on his call of the BB push, so he can call with any pair (given your high probability of being on draw) or any drawing hand with at least 6 clean outs.
G) BTN, now getting 4.3:1 on a CO push can call with a set or any hand with 5 clean outs.

Now, to check the results...

[Che]

B. Hand range for CO.

Preflop: Any 2.
Flop: Still any 2, but the underbet is more likely to be an attempt to buy it cheap than trap IMHO.

C. Hand range for Button.

Preflop: Any 2 playable cards that are not worth raising. Therefore, significant underweight for big pairs and big A's.
Flop: Set, big draw or hand I am beating. Why would top pair raise small? High % of nothing if he also reads CO's cont bet as weak.

D. Hand range CO can call with.
E. Hand range CO can push with.

Push or call sets, overpairs, monster draws. Fold everything else with possible exception of AT.

F. Hand range Button can call me with (i.e. assume CO has folded).

Top pair, set, big draw. Given my tight image (at the time), non-nut flush draws may fold (as was the case). Also, QT/JT (no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) may fold, but probably not.

G. Hand range Button can call all-in if CO pushes.

Set or BIG draw.

Why push?

I thought both CO’s bet and button’s raise were weak. Possible traps, of course, but most likely weak.

Therefore, I think CO’s calling range is a very small % of his total range. Button’s calling range is bigger, but I assigned a fairly large % to bluff and I have showdown equity against the big draws.

Throw in that everyone immediately thinks *set* when a TAG player takes this line (check-raise 2 opponents after a bet and raise) and my FE becomes much bigger than expected given the pot odds button is getting.

In essence, I suppose I'm bluffing/squeezing the CO and making the button pay to beat me.

Thoughts?

Che

[DonT77]

[ QUOTE ]

In essence, I suppose I'm bluffing/squeezing the CO and making the button pay to beat me.

Thoughts?

Che

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you did squeeze the CO (although in this case you got a worse hand to fold), and you did get the BTN to fold a hand that he should have called with (even if his overcard outs weren't good, his flush outs alone gave him pot odds to call) - so I guess according to the Fundamental Theory of Poker you accomplished your objective in getting the BTN to fold a hand that he would have called with if he could see your cards.

That said, you are pushing 8800 to win 8450 so you need to be sure that you are up against something worse than CO's Calling Range of Hands + BTN's CROH more than 50% of the time which I don't think you are here.

[EverettKings]

Would you make this play with nothing? How different is Tx from a total bluff here?

Everett

[Jason Strasser]

This is creative and fun and all, but the bottom line is that you move in on two people--one of which who has put in a reraise--laying 2-1. I think the fact you have top pair is irrelevant (I'm pretty sure you feel the same way) as that a huge % of the time a pair of tens is going to be the same as a pair of twos when you get called here. So I suppose you could call this a semibluff or whatever....

I dunno. I mean if those are two good thinking players sure 'setsetsetsetset' will ring out in their heads, but I really don't often trust anyone to make lay downs like this, expecially when there are so many convenient draws to put you on.

-Jason

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
This is creative and fun and all, but the bottom line is that you move in on two people--one of which who has put in a reraise--laying 2-1. I think the fact you have top pair is irrelevant (I'm pretty sure you feel the same way) as that a huge % of the time a pair of tens is going to be the same as a pair of twos when you get called here.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually ~2.5:1 for the button. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

A pair of tens is slightly better than 2's plus my 8 gives me some runner-runner straight possibilities, but T's and 2's are roughly equivalent versus overs + flush draw (the only hand I have significant showdown equity against).

I don't know what to call this, but it is definitely a misnomer to call it a bluff. Top pair is best here quite frequently, and betting with the best hand (or one that is basically 50/50) is obviously not bluffing.

Jamming all my chips in with this hand isn't easy, but folding isn't easy either if I think jamming is probably higher EV than folding (as I did based on my 5 seconds of analysis at the time).

Bets that are only called by equal/better hands aren't always bad bets.

Later,
Che