Shootout Tourneys

[tshort]

If you don't want to read the entire post, I made some conclusions below.

They announced a 10+1 and 20+1 buyin for tomorrow. It's hard to tell if they will be worthwile in terms of $/hr.

Take an example of a 1500 person $10+1 tournament.

Payout structure would be:

Round 1: (22.5, 15.0, 12.5) 1500 players
Round 2: (37.5, 25.0, 20.8) 450 players
Round 3: (72.3, 48.2, 40.2) 135 players
Round 4: (600, 375, 225, 165, 135) 42 players

Round 1.

1,000 chips. Blinds, raise every 10 minutes. BB:
(15, 20, 30, 50, 75, 100, 150, 200, 300, 400, 600, ...)

Anyone know how long this round lasts? With the slowly increasing blind structure compared to SNGs, I would guess an hour. You advance to 2nd round after all tables have finished the first round. This pretty much guarantees the first round will last 90-120 minutes.

Round 2.

Average chip count will be about 4,133, with extra chips.
800 extra chips. BB:
(400, 600, 800, 1000, 1200, 1600, 2000, 3000...)

Average chip count is merely 10 BBs, which are quickly increasing. It appears entering this round with less than average chip count would make things tough.

Round 3.

Average chip count will be about 16,777, with 3000 extra chips. BB:
(1500, 2000, 3000, 4000, 6000, 8000, 15000, 20000...)

Again, average chip count is about 10BBs. Quickly, increasing.

Round 4.

Now a 42 person MTT. Average chip count will be 63,923 with an extra 8000 chips. BB:

(6000, 8000, 10000, 15000, 20000, 30000, 40000, 60000, 80000)

Agsin, 10xBB average.

It looks like players have to be good playing when the average chip stack is 10 big blinds. It looks important to accumulate a larger than average chip stack quick and then maintain it. It would be hard to continue through round after round maintaining a 10BB stack.

Early Round 2 play could set a player apart for the remainder of the tournament.

As for profit, I'll assume that first 3 rounds place distribution is .16, .14, .12 . Your expected winnings, without factoring round 4, would be 16.48. Assuming even skill in round 4, your expected winnings per tournament played would be $19.2. Assuming, slightly above average skill in round 4, you wuold expet to win about $22.

I would take a wild guess that an average Shootout would take 170 minutes. That would result in a profit of a little less than $4/hour. A good player should be able to turn a better profit/hour at SNGs.

Let me know if I might be wrong. I'll stick to SNGs, unless I'm looking for some entertainment.

-tshort