#1
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Is this winning pattern unusual
First some background -- I'm a beginner (well advanced beginner). I find that when all is said and done, I'm beating 2-4 games for 2-3 big bets an hour, 4-8 for about the same, maybe a bit less. Low stakes NL games, I'm ahead, but really not enough playing time to make a statement.
Anyway, what I've noticed is that in general I'm playing even or losing slightly most of the time, but every session or so I hit the monster pot where I make all my money. Is this usual? unusual? an indication that I'm just very lucky and need serious work on my game? Wasn't sure of the right forum, but think that this was the right one. |
#2
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Re: Is this winning pattern unusual
I am not pro, so perhaps someone can back me up on this, but I think it will all depend on your playing style.
If you are playing fairly loose, then I think this would be a normal pattern - since you are going in with regularity, you are less likely to fold people out - as such, when you do win, there should be more money in the pot. If you play tighter, then you will wind up winning smaller pots because you will fold more people out - but as a result, you will probably actually win more hands overall because when you go in, a lot of the marginal hands will fold. |
#3
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Re: Is this winning pattern unusual
It sounds like you're playing live. If that's the case you're experience is going to be the norm.
Against those bad players (especially bad aggressive) you're variance increases. You'll be in alot of pots preflop 5 or 6 way with 25-35% equity usually. In these cases you're only winning the pot one out of 3 times, but when you do, it's very large. |
#4
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Re: Is this winning pattern unusual
I disagree with your conclusions - it seems to me that since a loose player is in more pots, a loose player will tend to win more pots (but also lose more money chasing).
I think a loose player will win more of the big pots, and more of the small pots. A tight player will win a higher percentage of the pots that they contribute to, but if the other players react to their tight play those pots will often be small. Most people think that playing tight is better than playing loose. Gamblers who enjoy action probably have a lot more fun playing loose, and there are probably some situations where loose aggressive play works better. If you play no-limit and wait patiently for nut hands to pay off, then I'd think the OP's winning pattern would be pretty normal. I think it would be more unusual in limit games. |
#5
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Re: Is this winning pattern unusual
The answer, I think, lies in what sorts of "monster pots" you're taking down. Here are some possibilities:
1. The deck is being very nice to you. Small PPs are turning into sets on the flop. AA, KK are showing up more often than you'd expect -- and are holding up against multiple bettors. Perfectly OK, but brace yourself for the times those starting hands don't improve or get cracked. 2. You've been hitting some 2- and 3-outers at the river to make a bundle. Not sustainable; prepare for tougher times. 3. You're shrewdly calculating pot odds and implied odds for draws -- and hitting your share of jumbo pots with 8-outers and 9-outers for straights and flushes. As long as you're not an outrageous luck box, this may be sustainable and a key part of how you're going to win $$. 4. You're playing at times (Friday evening, etc.) when there are lots of stubborn, tipsy people at the tables and they're calling you down when they should be folding. Or you've got some favorite fish on your buddy list. As long as you've got the discipline to do most of your playing when the tables are sloppiest, this is very sustainable. |
#6
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Re: Is this winning pattern unusual
you're a grinder. thats what grinders do. they wait for their spot and win the big ones. looks fine to me
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#7
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Re: Is this winning pattern unusual
This is probably more a result of how your opponents play than how you play. If you are in the sort of games where six people are in every pot until the river, then most of your profit will come from occassionally winning a monsterous pot. If you are in a tighter game, you will more often have shortterm swings up and down as you keep winning and losing lots of small pots.
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