Easy River Value bet vs 54/33/1.4.... and Den?

[hockey1]

This is an easy check. Not to be too harsh, but those advocating betting have a fundamental (and widely shared) misunderstanding of how to play the river.

[MAxx]

Hockey, you might be absolutely correct. The thing is that you just say blankety blank is easy.....and blankety blank those that disagree are wrong. If this is so fundamentally easy, shouldn't it be fairly easy to give a good reason or explaination.

[hockey1]

What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? Which of those are you ahead of on the river? Which are you behind? What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet?

Easy.

[MAxx]

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What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? <font color="blue"> Extremely wide range </font> Which of those are you ahead of on the river? <font color="blue"> everything but fullboats </font> Which are you behind? <font color="blue"> da boats </font> What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups <font color="blue"> Well, it's certainly possible he has a boat...but he's just been checkcallin all the way with a wide range. He could be drawin, underpairing, Aceing, or getting his boat filled. He's been real quiet though. </font> ? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet? <font color="blue"> Assuming he hasn't played KK or JJ weird and then scared or forgets his underpairs are now discounted, it pretty much leaves Aces and bluff attempts</font> <font color="blue"> I think i would have heard from a Q earlier and a T likely bets our river instead of cr... so I think I have that going for me. If guy doesnt call my river bet, does that make it any less of a river bet just because he didnt have an Ace? To Answer your question dircectly..... I get value from 3 aces and beat if he's holding 4 other cards. He's not given much indication he has one of the 4 other cards yet. I'm thinking it's still a good value bet, albeit thin. </font>

Easy. <font color="blue"> Thanks for expanding your answer, but I think your approach is a little too dissmissive. Stuff aint always easy, even if you'd like it to be. </font>

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[hockey1]

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What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? Extremely wide range Which of those are you ahead of on the river? everything but fullboats Which are you behind? da boats What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups Well, it's certainly possible he has a boat...but he's just been checkcallin all the way with a wide range. He could be drawin, underpairing, Aceing, or getting his boat filled. He's been real quiet though. ? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet? Assuming he hasn't played KK or JJ weird and then scared or forgets his underpairs are now discounted, it pretty much leaves Aces and bluff attempts I think i would have heard from a Q earlier and a T likely bets our river instead of cr... so I think I have that going for me. If guy doesnt call my river bet, does that make it any less of a river bet just because he didnt have an Ace? To Answer your question dircectly..... I get value from 3 aces and beat if he's holding 4 other cards. He's not given much indication he has one of the 4 other cards yet. I'm thinking it's still a good value bet, albeit thin.

Easy. Thanks for expanding your answer, but I think your approach is a little too dissmissive. Stuff aint always easy, even if you'd like it to be.

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Your thought process is ok, but I disagree with some of your conclusions. Most importantly, there are a bunch of draws that might be calling you through the turn that wouldn't call a bet on the river and you'd probably hear from an A long before the river if he had one of those. So, through the turn, in order of likelihood, I'd put villain on (1) a Q or T, (2) flush draw, (3) inside straight draw, (4) weak A or maybe a baby pair. You get raised by (1) and lose 2 BB. (2) and (3) don't call a bet. You win one BB from (4). Since you're probably either going to lose 2BB or win 1, for a bet to be correct it must be TWICE as likely you're ahead than behind. If anything I think the opposite is true here.

[etizzle]

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Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet?


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EVERY SINGLE ONE. All of them. Villain will hope for a chop much of the time, he doesnt even need cards.

[hockey1]

I don't think I agree, but worth taking into consideration.

[wheelz]

I realize that at the limits you play this might be a check, but you have to realize that at 10/20 6-max you will get called by some disgusting hands on the river

[etizzle]

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Not to be too harsh

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LOL