#1
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PLO8 --- 3 pair against probable AA + low draw
From his flop bet, I figured he probably had AA, but maybe not a 3. On the other hand, there's a good chance he has a low draw that's a hell of a lot better than mine. I was hoping a raise would win it right there, but when he reraised, I went with it. What you think?
$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo Hero ( $475.80 ), v1 ( $512.51 ), folder3 ( $544.08 ), folder1 ( $45.42 ), folder2 ( $249.05 ) Dealt to Hero [ J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] folder2 posts small blind [$2]. v1 posts big blind [$4]. Hero calls [$4], folder3 calls [$4], folder1 folds, folder2 calls [$2], v1 raises [$16], Hero calls [$16], folder3 folds, folder2 folds FLOP: (45.60) [ J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] v1 bets [$35], Hero raises [$151], v1 raises [$232], Hero is all-In [$304.80], v1 calls [$188.80] Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> TURN: (956.60) [ 9d ] RIVER: (956.60) [ Kd ] v1 shows [ Ad, 3h, Ah, 4s ] a pair of aces. Hero shows [ Jh, 2h, As, 5h ] two pairs, jacks and fives. Hero wins $957.60 from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and fives. There was no qualifying low hand. </font> |
#2
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Re: PLO8 --- 3 pair against probable AA + low draw
Wait for the turn, if its a blank shove the chips in there, itll help with variance. I dont like shoving it in there on the flop because the stacks are pretty deep. Its not like calling will pot commit you, and besides if he has A/A/3 and the turn is a low its a freeroll situation, not only that, but if you call on the flop you will figure out a lot. If he doesnt have A/A/3 he might all of a sudden slow down if a low hits. The only way he wouldnt slow down with or without A/A/3 is with a high blank card which of course you like more than him.
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#3
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Re: PLO8 --- 3 pair against probable AA + low draw
Pretty read-dependent... if he has AA3, or AA34 then you're obviously not in great shape. If it's a close situation, just rely on your reads--seems like you've been posting a lot of hands where you may be a 55% favorite or a 45% dog, and it entirely depends on your reads and the type of image you want to project.
Yeah, looking at the results, it was a lucky turn/river obviously... actually now that I think about it having that third pair is a big deal against AA since the board can't pair to improve AA's to two pair better than yours (except runner-runner pair). Guess you're running well! (Edit: hm, looks like you even lead AA3. I think this is a good move in the long run given a strong AA read. Nice to make good on a 2/3 when it happens though) |
#4
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Re: PLO8 --- 3 pair against probable AA + low draw
[ QUOTE ]
now that I think about it having that third pair is a big deal against AA since the board can't pair to improve AA's to two pair better than yours (except runner-runner pair). [/ QUOTE ] This is why I tried the move. Wouldn't have been as aggressive with just 2 pair. I still thought I was a 45% dog, though; I'll have to rerun the numbers. |
#5
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Re: PLO8 --- 3 pair against probable AA + low draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] now that I think about it having that third pair is a big deal against AA since the board can't pair to improve AA's to two pair better than yours (except runner-runner pair). [/ QUOTE ] This is why I tried the move. Wouldn't have been as aggressive with just 2 pair. I still thought I was a 45% dog, though; I'll have to rerun the numbers. [/ QUOTE ] You're a ~60/40 dog to AA34 but if it's AA38 or AA39 or something you're a slight favorite: Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s Jc 5d cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV 4s Ad Ah 3h 352 352 459 9 580 0 9 0.588 As Jh 5h 2h 207 459 352 9 0 120 9 0.412 Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s Jc 5d cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV 8s Ad Ah 3h 196 196 612 12 544 0 45 0.483 As Jh 5h 2h 207 612 196 12 0 84 45 0.517 Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s Jc 5d cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV 9s Ad Ah 3h 196 196 612 12 472 0 48 0.455 As Jh 5h 2h 252 612 196 12 0 96 48 0.545h |
#6
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Re: PLO8 --- 3 pair against probable AA + low draw
Yeah, actually, I think is the better line. If the low hasn't it by the turn, it will be a much better EV move to get my chips in.
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