#1
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Call the overbet?
Hypothetical. NLHE. It's heads-up and you have just seen the turn card.
$100 pot. Villian goes all-in for his remaining $200. You have him covered, so it costs you $200 to call. You put him on a range of hands that tells you with the river card to come: --If you are ahead, you win 90% of the time. --If you are behind, you win 20% of the time. You estimate that you are ahead 40% of the time here, and behind 60% of the time. Call or fold? |
#2
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Re: Call the overbet?
Call?
.4*.9=.36 .2*.6=.12 so you have a 48% chance to win which is about 1.1-1 and you are getting 1.5-1 from the pot. But I dont know, I might have done it completely wrong. |
#3
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Re: Call the overbet?
After posting this it kind of came together. Check my work someone?!?
(.36*200)+(.12*200)-(.52*100) = EV 72 + 24 - 52 = EV EV = +$44 Easy call. |
#4
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Re: Call the overbet?
[ QUOTE ]
(.36*200)+(.12*200)-(.52*100) = EV 72 + 24 - 52 = EV EV = +$44 [/ QUOTE ] The pot is $300 not $200. And you will lose 200 not 100. So it is (.36*300)+(.12*300)-(.52*200) 108+32-104 EV= +36 still an easy call. |
#5
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Re: Call the overbet?
No, I think mine is right. (Or we are both wrong) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Ref! Anyone.....anyone.......(echo) (echo) |
#6
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Re: Call the overbet?
There is 100 in the pot + the villian's 200 bet = 300 and you have to call a 200 bet, so you will lose 200.
But I could be wrong. |
#7
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Re: Call the overbet?
oh man, I am wrong. No clue what I was thinking last nite. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Bugs me that no one who knows the answer for sure just doesn't pop their head in here and say that your answer is correct if it is.
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#8
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Re: Call the overbet?
I am sure it is right, I was just afraid that I misinterpreted your original post.
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#9
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Re: Call the overbet?
[ QUOTE ]
The pot is $300 not $200. And you will lose 200 not 100. So it is (.36*300)+(.12*300)-(.52*200) 108+32-104 EV= +36 still an easy call. [/ QUOTE ] That should be 108+36-104 EV = +40. |
#10
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Re: Call the overbet?
Sorry that was a typo.
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