Riverbluff +EV?

[Aaron W.]

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Aaron,

I understand this
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It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value.

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but not this:
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If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

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I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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When you're bluffing the river, you've got to figure out how many hands villain will fold that are better than yours, and how many he will call that are better than yours. If villain would chase all sorts of draws, then this increases the number of hands that will fold to the river bet which are better than hero's hand (you win when you fold out a better hand). If there are very few hands that villain would chase, then a bet is bad because it's much more likely he has a pair and will call hero's bluff.