4.5 BB/100 after 32,000 hands @ $0.5/$1.00 (is she any good?)

[ChessMan]

Hi,

My girlfriend currently has a winrate of 4.5BB/100 at 0.50/1.00 limit. She's feeling really confindent. I told her that if she was making money after 10,000 hands she should feel good, but we'd still have no idea how profitable she was. At what point do we know what her long term expectation is per 100 hands? I heard it was 100,000 hands.

[Quercus]

I think its pretty safe to say she's pretty good at the 0.5/1.0 game.

Shouldn't you care more about what her long term expectation is at the next limit up rather than at the 0.5/1.00?

[shadow29]

This is most likely an accurate reading of her WR.

I don't want to do any more CIs now that it's summer.

But:

u +- t* (sd/sqrt(n))

[TheWorstPlayer]

tell her to move up pronto.

[ChessMan]

I didn't realize 4.5/100 justified a move up ASAP. I thought it was just high enough to consider moving up, but I didn't think it meant she's missing out on a lot of extra profits by avoiding 1/2.

Also, I don't think she has much (if any) talent, she's just tight preflop and aggressive on the flop. The players are so bad at 0.50/1.00, a simple strategy such as this is profitable.

If no one objects, I'll let her know that she really ought to be moving to 1/2 as soon as she wants to. I play 2/4 currently. She's catching up!

[bottomset]

maybe she ran hot, but its likely that she could beat the 1/2 game

[bighomage]

Na dude, 4.5 is pretty damn good. Probably some of it was running well, but if she feels comfortable in moving up she probably should.

[scotty34]

If you could play 100 000 hands without adjusting your style of play, then yea, that would give you a pretty good estimate of your expectation. However, 100 000 is a LOT of hands, and the way you played during the first 10 000 is probably considerably different than your style during the last 10 000. This is why it is extremely tough to accurately predict a winrate.

[Quercus]

[ QUOTE ]

I didn't realize 4.5/100 justified a move up ASAP.


[/ QUOTE ]

4.5 is quite good. It is almost certainly better than that of most people posting or lurking here.

[VBM]

i think it's a great idea for like, 99% of people to go through 1/2 before 2/4.

but, 4.5BBB/100 over 32k hands sounds like enough game to take a shot at 2/4 if she has the roll.