Long shots with odds

[jackfrost]

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To refocus back on the oringinal post.

I think the most intersting issue brought up here is that implied odds are not a concrete as many people would like them to be. It's very easy to convince yourself that the guy will stack off if you hit your straight and yes you might be right. However simply calcuating how much you have to call as opposed to the pot + opponents remaining stack is a mistake. Lets say you are correct 90% of the time the 10% of the time you are wrong dramatically reduce your implied odds.

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Calculating implied odds well is obviously something that isn't easy to do and it's a gamble just like everything else in poker. It's very similar to putting your opponent on a range of hands, but your simply putting him on a range of actions. I think if you calculate your implied odds, than take off a bet or two depending on the situation, you will be better off.

But I don't think calculating implied odds incorrectly is why Ciaffone says you should pass on long shots.