200NL - very simple AKo hand

[MLerra]

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Good to know I did the right thing, but god do I play scared sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img].

Ojo_Rojo

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I'm not convinced you did. Playing "scared" is not necessarily automatically a bad thing. If you want to look like a badass, don't ever play "scared". If you want to make money, sometimes it might be the right move.

Your read was dead-on, and I think that set calls your push on the turn if you made it. So you'd have gotten all of his money in as about an 80% favorite. Look at what scare cards could arrive for him: any spade, A, K, or 9 would scare me on the river if I had a set. That's presumably about as many cards that will scare you. There's well over a 50% chance that the river card will stop most or all action for you on the river (either by scaring you to check or scaring him to not call a bet).

I think a turn push would have been the best play...

[Ghazban]

OP doesn't say how big his river bet was, but if its reasonable and villain folded a set, he would've folded his set to the massive all-in push you're advocating on the turn.

[amoeba]

on the river, any K beats him though.

[MLerra]

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OP doesn't say how big his river bet was, but if its reasonable and villain folded a set, he would've folded his set to the massive all-in push you're advocating on the turn.

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I don't believe this. There's a big difference between giving someone credit for a straight when they need either A-K or K-9 to have it... versus when they need either a K or an 8. Four-to-a-straight looks a lot scarier to me than 3-to-a-straight. Not to mention the fact that, with a set on the turn, you still just win about 20% of the time when the board pairs even if you are behind on your call.

I dunno, maybe we're envisioning different villains. But I know I'm one of the tightest players in this forum, and I would call an all-in on the turn with a set and fold to damn near any river bet in this hand.

[Ghazban]

I apologize. I didn't realize the river put 4 to a straight on the board. Still, I stand by my opinion that pushing for double the pot on the turn is overkill. Bet the pot to put half your stack in and you give a set bad implied and immediate odds to fill and you're more likely to get a call for the other half on the river even if he doesn't fill.

[meow_meow]

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OP doesn't say how big his river bet was, but if its reasonable and villain folded a set, he would've folded his set to the massive all-in push you're advocating on the turn.

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You must have missed the results: river was an offsuit 9.