Draw possibility criterion?

[Shillx]

Let's assume that you have one opponent that has a hand that you can only beat by backdooring a flush. It will come in 4% of the time to make things easy. Only one bet goes in on each street. How big does the pot need to be in order to call?

EV = 0 = - 24*1 SB - 4*2 SB + (5+X SB)
X = 27 SB

Now let's say that there are 4 people in the pot instead of just one. Also assume that they will each give you 2 bets on the river when you hit. Now how big does the pot have to be?

EV = 0 = - 24 SB - 8 SB + (28+X)SB
X = 4 SB

So it really depends on a lot of different factors...

1) Are those your only outs
2) How many people are in the pot
3) How many bets will you have to pay on each street
4) What your implied odds are

In general, you should not chase backdoor draws unless you have some other kind of draw to go with it (like bottom pair or a gutshot). If the pot is big + multiway, you can peel with just a BD draw if you are pretty sure that you only have to pay one bet on the flop. If you have to pay a double bet on the flop, you are screwed...

Again, 4 people and you get a double on the river from everyone. This time though, you will have to pay 2 bets on the flop...how big must the pot be to call?

EV = 0 = - 48 SB - 8 SB + (32+X)SB
X = 24 SB

Brad