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Re: AK - UI What to do?
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This is a leak. All your outs beat a jack, and its rare for someone to have a 5. YOU CAN NOT CHECK/FOLD THESE SITUATIONS AND EXPECT TO BE A PROFITABLE PLAYER. [/ QUOTE ] One week, I decided to invest a handful of SB in an experiment at my nanolimit (.05/.10) table. If I was SB/BB, and the flop came up XXY, where neither X and Y were broadway cards, I was going to bet the flop with whatever I happened to have. I wanted to see how many people would really call in that situation, and how many would run away. I was amazed at how many people would fold that situation - almost always I'd have one caller, but rarely two or more, and occasionally the whole table would fold. I'd often have to check-fold the turn, but the confidence I gained from the evidence was invaluable. [My analogy is working on a particular golf shot - you can practice at the range all you want, but you'll gain more insight in the long run by investing in a round to actually trying it out on the course seven or eight times, even if you shoot higher than normal.] Then I went to twodimes and calculated the odds of two overcards beating various hands after the flop. Obviously there is a bit of a range of hands, but roughly, this is what I found: - <1% against the set - 25% against the two-pair (you have a lot of hidden outs, runner-runner TT will give you a better kicker, runner-runner flush/straight will tie the board) - 45% against the flush draw + runner-runner straight draw, or straight draw + runner-runner flush draw If five people see the flop, then you're getting 6-1 if you can isolate the two-pair heads-up. Sometimes you won't, and sometimes he'll have the set, but I think the times you get 6-1 or 7-1 odds to play a 25% hand make up for it. And of course there's the rare occasion when two opponents each have the two pair, and you manage to hit your overpair on the turn. Now what I'm still struggling on is what to do if somebody raises. I'm generally folding, unless everybody folded to the button who raises, or unless I can close the betting heads-up with my call. |
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