Chasing flush draws

[bball904]

Scuba, I'm going to try and be nice here, but this is an example of your posts being way off the mark.

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Let's assume for the moment my Ace and King are good.

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That's like hanging out in a club and staring at a hot chick that has scowled at you and turned away with disinterest, then assuming that you could walk over there and get her number. On a rare occasion you may be right, but to assume so is foolish.

If you're going to talk about outs and pot odds, you have to make an effort at calculating outs. With this much aggression shown, you will often be up against a set, AT, KT, T9 or other hands that may have redraws to your overcards. I think you can count your overcards for 2-3 outs at best. Read SSH for the best reading on discounting outs.

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I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?


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This table is your probability to hitting a certain # of outs with 2 or 1 card to come and 47 unseen cards. You can handle the math from there.

Outs 2 1
20 67.5% 43.5%
19 65.0% 41.3%
18 62.4% 39.1%
17 59.8% 37.0%
16 57.0% 34.8%
15 54.1% 32.6%
14 51.2% 30.4%
13 48.1% 28.3%
12 45.0% 26.1%
11 41.7% 23.9%
10 38.4% 21.7%
9 35.0% 19.6%
8 31.5% 17.4%
7 27.8% 15.2%
6 24.1% 13.0%
5 20.4% 10.9%
4 16.5% 8.7%
3 12.5% 6.5%
2 8.4% 4.3%
2 4.3% 2.2%

[hyde]

"Scuba, I'm going to try and be nice here, but this is an example of your posts being way off the mark.


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Let's assume for the moment my Ace and King are good.


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That's like hanging out in a club and staring at a hot chick that has scowled at you and turned away with disinterest, then assuming that you could walk over there and get her number. On a rare occasion you may be right, but to assume so is foolish."

I love a good analogy.

on the hand, I would fold, but hate doing it. Smells like a set to me....
results?

[Scuba Chuck]

So then, by bball's numbers, I would need to have 12 live outs for this to be a correct call.

My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. The implied odds suggest I need 9 live outs to make this call. Am I heading in the right direction with this?

[bball904]

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So then, by bball's numbers, I would need to have 12 live outs for this to be a correct call.

My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. The implied odds suggest I need 9 live outs to make this call. Am I heading in the right direction with this?

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Basing your decision on pots odds you are in the right direction. However, I believe Lorinda summed up the answer to this thread very succinctly.

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My instinct tells me it's an hourly rate call or an ROI fold.


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[KenProspero]

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My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

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My hunch would be 11 or 12 discounted outs.

9 hearts, easy
A/K -- based on the betting, I assume that Villians hold 1 or 2, of them. And based on the betting, there's a good chance for a set. Call it 2 outs -- but I'd go with 3 if you push.
Straight draw 1/2 an out (which more or less cancels the discount I have to take against my flush being beaten)

And if we believe Harrington's rule, that there's a 10% chance that the all-in was a bluff (in this case, I think 10% overstates the case, though), maybe a bit for rounding.

So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

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My hunch would be 11 or 12 discounted outs.

9 hearts, easy
A/K -- based on the betting, I assume that Villians hold 1 or 2, of them. And based on the betting, there's a good chance for a set. Call it 2 outs -- but I'd go with 3 if you push.
Straight draw 1/2 an out (which more or less cancels the discount I have to take against my flush being beaten)

And if we believe Harrington's rule, that there's a 10% chance that the all-in was a bluff (in this case, I think 10% overstates the case, though), maybe a bit for rounding.

So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

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I agree with everything but the straight draw is nowhere near 1/2 an out when you need 2 specific cards (QJ- 134:1) as in this case. It's about 1/8 of an out.

[KenProspero]

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I agree with everything but the straight draw is nowhere near 1/2 an out

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You're undoubtedly right. Since I was using it to 'balance' other unlikely occurances, probably harmless in this case, but I have to watch it for cases when it would make a difference.

[Scuba Chuck]

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So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

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Ken, you pretty much talked through what you should do at the table, which is kind of what I did. I came to the conclusion of 10 to be conservative. My feeling was that if I was going to assume more than 10, then might as well assume my ace or king (or both) are live for sure. Which were my optimistic thoughts.

Oh, and I think the conclusion of $/hr vs. ROI decision is an easy way out of this debate. I do think it's an important concept tho.

What I'm getting at, is figure the probabilities I'm up against a lower pair (like QQ), I'm up against another draw, or a pure bluff (like MP2) vs. the possibility of a set, or a pair of KKs or AAs. All told, I figure to be a coinflip here at worst for a lot of chips.

Huh, I think I just talked my way into $/hr vs ROI. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bball904]

Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention.

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So, these are my in the game thoughts...
I've got 15 outs

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My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

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Think more. Post less.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention.


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So, these are my in the game thoughts...
I've got 15 outs


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My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.


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Think more. Post less.


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Bball, you are correct. My intent was to start the discussion with the total number of outs, and then work backwards. Do you do it any different? Perhaps I should have stated it all, and succinctly in my first post, but I was tired, and I don't have a chart showing me the odds with two cards to come.

But you're correct, if you believe I am trying to claim my total thought process, disjointed as it appears in this thread, as an afterthought, then I am the fool.