A 1 bet river fold, 30/60

[roy_miami]

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The river fold, before you laugh at it, put a vpip 20 player on a range of hands and their relative likelihoods and let's go from there.

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If he would call 2 w/A9s he could also have A8s or A7s. He likely puts you on a big ace the way you played your hand. I would say the minimum he raises on the river is AK. If he's capable of calling 2 w/Axs he would likely play A7-9 like this post flop.

I say most often he turns over AK, 99 or 88. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see TJs, A9s, maybe A8s or AA.

I think because you never really showed the true strength of your hand (unless he doesnt think you'll cap a big Ace on the turn) you should call and expect to be shown AK or A9s often enough for a profit.

[James282]

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The river fold, before you laugh at it, put a vpip 20 player on a range of hands and their relative likelihoods and let's go from there.

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If he would call 2 w/A9s he could also have A8s or A7s. He likely puts you on a big ace the way you played your hand. I would say the minimum he raises on the river is AK. If he's capable of calling 2 w/Axs he would likely play A7-9 like this post flop.

I say most often he turns over AK, 99 or 88. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see TJs, A9s, maybe A8s or AA.

I think because you never really showed the true strength of your hand (unless he doesnt think you'll cap a big Ace on the turn) you should call and expect to be shown AK or A9s often enough for a profit.

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Raise AK? Never showed the strength of my hand? You're living in candy land.
-James

[TStoneMBD]

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You're living in candy land.

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dude that game is so much fun. i used to play that as a kid. i would so play that for money.

[roy_miami]

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Raise AK? Never showed the strength of my hand? You're living in candy land.


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This would be my logic if I was villain with AK. When you just call the flop and then come alive when the ace comes on the turn I have every reason to believe you have AT, AJ, AQ or AK the way you played it, no? Easy 3-bet for me. Your cap would worry me slightly.

On the river you just call Idiot laggy BB's bet, looks like a big ace after all, I might as well raise for value as I'm not scared of a reraise. I would certainly raise that river with AK vs. 2 LAGs (at least I would collect 1 bet from you in a side pot), is it really that far fetched that he puts you on AK or worse and thinks you're laggy?

[James282]

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Raise AK? Never showed the strength of my hand? You're living in candy land.


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This would be my logic if I was villain with AK. When you just call the flop and then come alive when the ace comes on the turn I have every reason to believe you have AT, AJ, AQ or AK the way you played it, no? Easy 3-bet for me. Your cap would worry me slightly.

On the river you just call Idiot laggy BB's bet, looks like a big ace after all, I might as well raise for value as I'm not scared of a reraise. I would certainly raise that river with AK vs. 2 LAGs (at least I would collect 1 bet from you in a side pot), is it really that far fetched that he puts you on AK or worse and thinks you're laggy?

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You think I'd cap AK there?? What am I putting the button on if I cap AK? AQc? AJc? Oh wait, the clubs got there on the river. You would raise AK for value????? Gimme a break dude. There is absolutely no value in a river raise for Ak there. No thinking(but not expert who had total control over me) player would ever raise AK on the river there. I won't buy it. A9s is possible, as I said, but there is 1 combination of that. There are zero combinations of A7s and 1 combination of A8s that I beat, and far more combinations of hands that beat me that are also far more likely given the action. You're going to have to do better than some far off scenario where someone would play AK like that. Upon further review I think the river fold is a little closer than I felt at the time(and player reads are, as we know, the intangible here), but in no way is my fold awful.

AKc, AQc, AJc, ATc, A9c, 3 combinations of AA, 3 combinations of 88, 3 combinations of 99, 4 combinations of JTs makes 18 hands that beat me. The hands that I beat that he might raise on the river are A9d, A8d, and A8h.

So that's 6:1. Now we see can examine their various likelihoods. I would say A8h is by far the least likely since he raised the flop. I would say the big club hands and the JTs hands are by far the most likely. Given the action, he will fear a set a certain percentage of the time and not raise the top two or A8 hand, whereas he will always raise the made straight or the nut flush.

We ought to agree that the action makes the group of hands that beats me are more likely than the hands that I beat. They need to be 3 and a half times as likely for this fold to be Ev neutral. I would say that the first range of hands is more than 5 times as likely, as a slightly too loose player is far less likely to have a hand like A8s or A9s than 88, 99, JTs, or a bigger suited ace. Can anyone come up with more hands to broaden this range?
-James

[Steve Giufre]

OK I'm not one for monster laydowns for one bet on the river, especially on the internet. But agaist a pro, who knows you are pro, you may as well take the sixty bucks and light it on fire IMO. To argue whether or not the button would raise AK for value here is absurd. If I were the button I would not give a second thought to even calling the river with AK, if I somehow got there in the first place. The only legitimate hand you beat on the river is A9. You have the bottom set. A solid postflop player is not gonna cap a good pro on the turn, and then raise the river with that board when the flush gets there with top two pair. Agaist a different kind of opponent its a real easy call, but if your player info is correct I think its a fold. If it is a mistake, it certainly isnt as big of a mistake as others are making it out to be.

BTW I'm not sure thats the best way to play that flop.

[James282]

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OK I'm not one for monster laydowns for one bet on the river, especially on the internet. But agaist a pro, who knows you are pro, you may as well take the sixty bucks and light it on fire IMO. To argue whether or not the button would raise AK for value here is absurd. If I were the button I would not give a second thought to even calling the river with AK, if I somehow got there in the first place. The only legitimate hand you beat on the river is A9. You have the bottom set. A solid postflop player is not gonna cap a good pro on the turn, and then raise the river with that board when the flush gets there with top two pair. Agaist a different kind of opponent its a real easy call, but if your player info is correct I think its a fold. If it is a mistake, it certainly isnt as big of a mistake as others are making it out to be.

BTW I'm not sure thats the best way to play that flop.

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Nice response, it probably isn't the best way to play the flop. Natural reaction would have me reraising once I've been raised. For some reason, at the time, I was inclined not to. I concede that that street was not played optimally.
-James

[JohnnyHumongous]

ONE question I have. What about the concept that in a big pot you should do anything you can to win it? Could your opponent be tossing out one more BB, raising rather than calling, knowing you can't realistically raise back without a flush? Are the chances you have 77 or 88 and will fold (as the pro vs. pro analysis suggests you would) enough to make him kick it out? $60 extra in exchange for at least 5% folding equity from you would be +EV. Just a thought. By the way I don't think that's what happened here, but I'm starting to think about this concept a little more at the higher limits. 21.5BB is a massive pot.

[Justin A]

James,
I really don't see A9 or A8 raising this river, ever.

[roy_miami]

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You think I'd cap AK there??

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No, I don't. Your opponent might, who knows what he's thinks?

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No thinking player would ever raise AK on the river there. I won't buy it. A9s is possible

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What range of hands could you have that top 2 pair is ahead of but top pair top kicker is behind?

When I first read the hand the way it was posted it read you lead the river, he raised, you folded. I was thinking to myself, this looks really close but I'm sure I would make the call. Then when you said the converter messed up and you just called big blinds bet, this is information about the strength of your hand and may have tipped the scales for button to make a very slim value raise where he would have just called if you had been the one betting. In my oppinion it went from a close river call to an easy river call. I just can't see a set only being good here less than 5% of the time.