can i fold KK pre-flop ?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
If my math is correct, it is an easy call for me. You have two "pushes" which means I would be betting t940 into a t2000 pot. About 2.1 to 1 odds.

The only hand I am really worried about is AA. I think the odds of someone waking up with AA is about 4.4% in a ten handed deal.

That means that 95.6% of the time, I will be a 56% favoirte to win the hand three handed (example: in a worse case senario, the BB wakes up with AK and UTG with QQ, I am a 56% favorite to win).

Even the 4.4% time I run into AA, all is not lost. I will still win 18% of the time (example if BB wakes up with AA and UTG has QQ, I will still have a 18% chance to win).

If my math is correct, I make this call, because in the long run, I have a big edge.

Please let me know if I am mistaken. I am new to the game and have plenty to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the next poster pointed this out already but even though your #s may be correct they are utterly useless in THIS scenario for many reasons...mainly, a % of the time someone has AA at any given time is not a way to analyze an all-in with 2 callers...those odds go up DRAMATICally in this case given the context...

IOW, what are the odds someone holds AA in a 10 handed game?

AND

What are the odds of AA when there is an all-in, a caller, then another caller, at level 1 of a tourney?

Unless we are playing with monkeys, good chance of AA in second case...

[ChrisV]

Yes, I think you can fold. I just don't see UTG holding anything except AA here. Even if he doesn't there's still a pretty good chance of either the pusher or BB having it.

Because your equity against hands containing aces is lower than AA's equity against you, you actually need there to be no AA out there more than 50% of the time - you need something like 60-65%. That's before you factor in that if you fold, two people will more than likely be eliminated, which ups your $EV without you doing anything.

I'm normally part of the "never fold KK" brigade but there's a time and place for everything.

[bugstud]

I would look at how the first 3 hands played out and decide.

[stripsqueez]

i'm not convinced everybody who read this post did so properly - i raised a limper to T60 - the next guy pushed and 2 other guys called before it came back to me

given it was hand 4 i knew nothing about these guys

i called and got shown AA, AK, and QQ

at the time i figured i might see a couple of AK's and some joke hand but putting my stack in 4 way early is never going to be great - i think fold is the best plan

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[adanthar]

Well, there's certainly gonna be a QQ-TT and an AK-AQ in there somewhere. You're always way ahead of the all in and almost always ahead of the caller.

So it's up to UTG, who might have aces, or might have AK, or might have nines or JTs and feel frisky.

I can make this laydown with QQ and always make it with AKs but folding kings there is just wrong on principle exactly because it's the fourth hand and you have no read. If it was Hand 40 or Hand 400 with this guy I'd be a lot happier.

[ChrisV]

I know "this is Party" but the 100s are not normally anywhere near that crazy.

Do you think nobody is showing AA here 60% of the time? Is that really what your gut tells you? I think 60% is a conservative estimate of what you require given the virtual certainty that there is an Ax hand (AK, AQ) if there's no AA, and the $EV you are all bleeding to the rest of the table simply by going allin 4 ways.

stripsqueez did UTG show AA or was it someone else?

[adanthar]

If they have AKs, QQ and TT, you've a 40% chance to quadruple up for an EV of +600. If it's AKo, it's 43% for +720. If you get lucky enough for AK to be in there with AQ/TT, you've 57% equity for +1280.

In the actual hand - a worst case scenario - he had 10% equity for -600. Change the AK to JJ and he only gives up 280.

Given all that, the break even point for not showing aces is substantially less than you think - way under 50%. I'm 95% sure it's not near this much at the $50 buyin. Admittedly, I don't play the 100's but I don't think it's such a huge difference.

[bugstud]

to nitpick, I think facing AA and 2 AK's is the worst case scenario

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
stripsqueez did UTG show AA or was it someone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty sure i gave them in order so initial pusher had AA, the BB AK and UTG had QQ - i would agree that UTG is perhaps the scariest call - when i reviewed some games on pokertracker recently from the $200 game i noticed several of the good players (in addition to the chooks) always open limped from the front with AA early

everybody had roughly the same stack sizes - i actually had something like T1030 and momentarily survived with T45

this comes down to how bad i think the other guys are - in the $100's there are always 2-3 push happy chooks early but when both the BB and UTG call it is prime AA territory - at least a good player isnt troubled to fold AK or QQ when someone pushes over the top of a pre-flop raiser at this stage of the game

to finish the result the flop was Q 5 Q

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
So it's up to UTG, who might have aces, or might have AK, or might have nines or JTs and feel frisky.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your general read regarding an unknown UTG at a ~$100 SNG, who limps/cold-calls all-in after 2 push infront, you are significantly underestimating your opponents, which can cost you dearly, IMO.

But i agree with your general line, and I think I'll call in this spot, for a few reasons: the mere fact that there are 3 all-ins ahead increases the chanses for AK (and AQ), and by that reduces the chances for AA. So naturally, you'll see more QQ than AA, and unless you're playing against a known very tight player/s, calling with KK here should be +EV. Not hugely so, but still.

I don't think folding is a big mistake, though, in this specific spot. But if you're good in handling a big stack, i think it is an auto call, since getting your stack to be x4, even if it's something aroung 0 EV spot, is well worth the risk, and is definitely not -EV in CEV aspects. That's how i see it.