Using Past Performance to Make Showdown Decision

[LetsRock]

Aside from the fact that you don't want to break even, nothing. Even is NOT an edge.

[Saint_D]

The other slight problem with this approach is the randomness in poker. You would have to play at least 10K hands or so each time you made an ajdustment to see if you were on track. With smaller sample sizes, the changes in these %'s aren't all that meaningful.

If your numbers are WAY off where you expect them to be, then you can make adjustments quicker. Like when I first started using PT and realized my VP$IP was almost 50% when it _felt_ much lower.

Just changing my pre-flop standards made a big difference in my game. I am still a tiny bit high at 22%, but I need a few thousand more hands before I can tell if I am still too lose (probably) or if it's just a run of cards where I am getting slightly above average hole cards.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]

The other slight problem with this approach is the randomness in poker. You would have to play at least 10K hands or so each time you made an ajdustment to see if you were on track. With smaller sample sizes, the changes in these %'s aren't all that meaningful.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I'm assuming you start with some substantial number of hands already played. At that point, your numbers are going to have some "inertia" -- that won't be substantially changed by a few hands. You're not going to go from playing 10% of high cards at showdown to 50% overnight.

On the other hand, now that I think about it, you likely play so few hands in that situation that maybe you would see radically swings. Hmm, I'll have to think about it.

I've started doing this just as an experiment, and so far it has affected exactly 1 decision :-).

-- Scott