K10s against a 3 bet from 2+2er, can I call this flop?

[Kevin]

In true Party fashion, this round of hand histories did not come (it seems that I am getting about 90% of them these days).

I will try and recollect the flop as best as I can.


pretty juicy 5/10 game, I am mp with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Fold to me, I open raise. 2+2er to my left 3 bets (10% sf not a blind and 8% PFR in about 700 hands with him).

Folded back to me. I call.

Flop is Q 9 x 2 diamonds. I check, he bets.

8 small bets in (the small blind I am assuming in the drop at this point).

If I am doing the math correctly

High Probability Hands:
I have 90% probability that he would 3 bet with AA-1010 and AK. There are 33 ways for this to happen - (6 AA, 3 KK (since I have Ks), 3 QQ (since Qd is on board), 6 with JJ, 3 with 1010 (since I have 10s), 11 AK other than AdKd (since I have Ks) and 1 way to have Ad Kd. If I weight all of these possibilities equally and assume that there is 90% probability that he has one of these hands then, that equals 4.8 outs.

Medium Probability Hands
If there is 8% chance that he has one of the 3 possible remaining combinations of AQs, 99, AJs (non diamond) and the one combination of AdJd, that is 10 possibilities - which equals another (weighted) 0.5 outs.

Low Probability Hands
If I look at the very unlikely scenariao (2%) that he has Ad10d or the 3 other A10s, and the 6 ways to have 88-66, that is another 22 possibilities (weighted) for 0.2 outs -


so a total of 5.5 outs - which works out to 7.51-1 which is a call with the Ks10s.

If I give 100% possibility to only the first bucket of hands (AA-1010, AK), it is 4.8 outs (weighted), it comes out to 8.79 to one - which is very very close, but by the letter of the law, a fold if I do not count the extra bets collected from implied odds.


Way too much thought and time into this, I am sure - but I was hoping for some feedback on the play.

Is the logic correct?
Do I weight Aces, Kings and Queens heavier than JJ, 1010 and AK for a 3 bet?

Is it wishful thinking about the medium and low probability hands to give justification for the call - or would anyone here 3 bet an open raiser with the medium and low probability hands?

I will cross post in the probability forum if it is more appropriate.

Thanks for your feedback,
Kevin