30-60 Turn Decision

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
"So how can my advice be really really bad?"

because if you are even a little off (say 10% or 20% or something, if judgement of players in a multiway pot can be calculated in percents) the error is pretty bad because the pot is so big.

save the close folds for smaller pots and the close calls for bigger pots. you see?

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's talk numbers. Assume my calculation is correct. If so, your EV when calling is

(4/46)*19 - (42/46)*2 = -.1739 BB

That is, every time you make this call, you lose $10 on average.

Now let's assume my calculation of outs is off by 25% and you actually have 5 outs, not 4. Your EV when calling is

(5/46)*19 - (41/46)*2 = .2826 BB

That is, you make $17 every time you make this call.

This is the whole point of being around 0 EV. Whether you call or not doesn't matter too much. It's only if you assume that I'm way off in my calculation of outs that things begin to look different.

As it stands right now, if my advice to fold is wrong, it's a small error precisely because the EV is so close.