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Old 09-22-2001, 01:12 AM
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Default Is this bearish for you ????



"Don't buy stocks until you start seeing REVERSE SPLITS becomming the norm. Well if Disney gets down to $10 I am certain they will reverse split to increase the stock value and at the same time begin the task of BEGINNING TO MAKE THE DOW DIVISOR LARGER INSTEAD OF SMALLER. Remember, the DOW could go to infinity on stock splits alone simply by lowering the divisor that affected the point amount that ALL DOW COMPONENTS would add to the average - its not a valid mathematical formula in that the equation does not have a constant. Thats why long term charts are just nonesence - every time a stock would split or one was replaced, you can no longer compare the previous days value to the new value. Its a new formula. Name a DOW component that was on the DOW 50 years ago and is still there today.


Getting back to debt - with all the equity losses in the markets - a few trillion now since last spsring - thats a few trillion that can no longer be used to service debt much less retire it. Next, what will happen is companies like GE, Xerox, etc., will have to sell bonds to raise cash to service debt as will individuals - provided that they own bonds. That will drive interest rates up while further depressing the markets. This was a debt implosion that had to happen and was happening before the tragedy - and now exacerbated by it. Mortgage delequencies are now in percentage terms at the highest rate than since the GREAT DEPRESSION. Next will be credit cards going belly up, then corporate debt which is held by major banks and brokerage houses. DEFAULT, DEFLATION, AND DEPRESSION - the three D's, are here. Oh yes, the biggest component of GDP will fall next - medical care costs. If people in their 50's are losing money at a rapid rate in this market - believe me they are not going to pay $700-$800 per month for a health insurance plan - and neither are their employers. Doctors may have to deliver babies for a chicken down the road. Same with drug manufacturers - the prices will have to come down or they will be resonsible for practicing human euthanasia on a massive scale as people simply wont' have the money for their medicines."


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